ComRes came in for some criticism from the usual Republican lobby as it had a recent poll looking at support for the monarchy. Go to the comments section of the Daily Mail article and you'll see what I mean:
This is a false claim as they did not ask the entire population of the country and just used a sample and then rounded it up.. I hate the monarchy and propose a Republic so we can get shot of all the freeloading royals. A president can easily open stores or bridges etc we do not need them all. Then all the homes and land can go to the national Trust so we can all use it unlike the Royal only usage today. A loaded survey does not tell the truth about this. I cant see how this article isnt illegal. If it were an advert it would have many complaints about it and be forced to be withdrawn. It is simply not true to imply that the entire country says this as they have not been asked. It should state that a small survey gave these facts and what area it was done in . Dont we have a Press Complaint organisation???? Thats where these lies should go..
i bet 90% of those polled were old codgers and young mums...why dont we have a vote on it and get it over with once and for all..then the silent majority can have thier say.
How do we know three quarters of the country want a royal family? Nobody asked me so the numbers are just from a random sample and probably only from down south where they all pretend they adore the royal family saith the expat.
Who gets asked these questions????? Nobody has ever asked me. (Republican, in case anybody cares, which they do not!)
The simple logic - no-one asked me or my mates, the sample is too small, the sample was biassed, let the "silent majority" speak.
Now, the sample sizes used are big enough to be representative, and people carrying out surveys do not focus on the elderly or southerners, but make sure that the results are weighted to reflect the population.
Just because you and your mates didn't get asked, doesn't mean the survey is flawed. And if you mix with likeminded people, then it is easy to assume that you speak for the "silent majority" who think like you. For example, I used to work with a man who was strongly opposed to the European Union and the European Court of Human Rights (and would not accept that the ECHR is not part of the EU). He said that his dad used to tell him that he had asked his mates how they had voted in the referendum on continuing membership of the European Economic Community in June 1975. From this sample of similar people, the conclusion could be drawn that the majority of people voted in 1975 to leave. His dad once explained to him that after the referendum, Ted Heath, the former Prime Minister, simply went on TV and announced we had voted to stay in, and that was that.
With that out the way, we have recent polls from 3 organisations.
The first to look at is the YouGov ones:
| Date | C | Lab | LD | UKIP |
| Thursday 25 July | 35% | 39% | 8% | 11% |
| Friday 26 July | 32% | 38% | 11% | 11% |
| Sunday 28 July | 33% | 39% | 10% | 11% |
| Tuesday 30 July | 33% | 40% | 10% | 12% |
| Wednesday 31 July | 34% | 40% | 11% | 10% |
| Average | 33.4% | 39.2% | 10.0% | 11.0% |
The result of the 2010 general election is:
- Conservatives - 306 (including 1 Deputy Speaker)
- Labour - 258 (including 2 Deputy Speakers)
- Liberal Democrats - 57
- Northern Ireland parties - 18
- Scottish National Party - 6
- Plaid Cymru - 3
- Greens - 1
- The Speaker - 1
As before I will assume that there is no change of Speaker of the House of Commons, so John Bercow would be re-elected in Buckingham as Mr Speaker seeking re-election.
From the YouGov results, we get the following changes:
- Labour gains 86 seats from the Conservatives, 21 from the Liberal Democrats and 1 from the Greena - a gain of 108 seats
- The Scottish National Party gains 1 seat from the Liberal Democrats
- Plaid Cymru gains 1 seat from the Liberal Democrats
- The Greens lose 1 seat to Labour
- The Conservatives gain 34 seats from the Liberal Democrats but lose 86 to Labour - a net loss of 52 seats
- The Liberal Democrats lose 1 seat to the Scottish National Party, 1 to Plaid Cymru, 21 to Labour and 34 to the Conservatives - a loss of 57 seats
This gives a final result of:
- Labour - 366 (including 2 Deputy Speakers)
- Conservatives - 254 (including 1 Deputy Speaker)
- Northern Ireland parties - 18
- Scottish National Party - 7
- Plaid Cymru - 4
- The Speaker - 1
Now have a look at the Populus ones:
| Date | C | Lab | LD | UKIP |
| Wednesday 24/ Thursday 25 July | 32% | 39% | 11% | 10% |
| Friday 26 - Sunday 28 July | 34% | 39% | 11% | 8% |
| Average | 33% | 39% | 11% | 9% |
This gives us the following changes:
- Labour gains 75 seats from the Conservatives, 14 from the Liberal Democrat and 1 from Plaid Cymru, while losing 1 to the Conservatives and 4 to the Scottish National Party - a net gain of 85 seats
- The Scottish National Party gains 8 seats from the Liberal Democrats and 4 from Labour - a gain of 12 seats
- Kidderminster Hospital & Health Concern gains 1 seat from the Conservatives
- Plaid Cymru gains 1 seat from the Liberal Democrats but loses 1 to Labour
- The Conservatives gain 33 seats from the Liberal Democrats and 1 from Labour, while losing 1 to Kidderminster Hospital & Health Concern and 75 to Labour - a net loss of 42 seats
- The Liberal Democrats lose 1 seat to Plaid Cymru, 8 to the Scottish National Party, 14 to Labour and 33 to the Conservatives - a loss of 56 seats
This gives a final result of:
- Labour - 343 (including 2 Deputy Speakers)
- Conservatives - 264 (including 1 Deputy Speaker)
- Northern Ireland parties - 18
- Scottish National Party - 18
- Plaid Cymru - 3
- Liberal Democrats - 1
- Kidderminster Hospital & Health Concern - 1
- Greens - 1
- The Speaker - 1
Notice that Labour loses a seat (Bolton West) to the Conservatives, while picking up many from them. This is due to the fact that by splitting Great Britain down into areas we can see differing changes in support in different areas.
And finally, we look at the ComRes one:
| Date | C | Lab | LD | UKIP |
| Tueaday 30 July | 34% | 37% | 10% | 12% |
Now, ComRes splits England down into the standard regions, as well as giving separate levels of support in each of Wales and Scotland, thus enabling regional variations to show. While much attention has been given to the small Labour lead, it is what's happening under the surface that matters.
This gives the following changes:
- Labour gains 51 seats from the Conservatives, 17 from the Liberal Democrats and 2 from Plaid Cymru, while losing 2 to the Liberal Democrats, 9 to the Scottish National Party and 15 to the Conservatives - a net gain of 44 seats
- The UK Independence Party gains 18 seats from the Conservatives and 6 from the Liberal Democrats - a gain of 24 seats
- The Scottish National Party gains 9 seats from Labour and 6 from the Liberal Democrats - a gain of 15 seats
- Plaid Cymru loses 1 seat to the Conservatives and 2 to Labour - a loss of 3 seats
- The Conservatives gain 23 seats from the Liberal Democrats, 15 from Labour and 1 from Plaid Cymru, while losing 18 to the UK Independence Party and 51 to Labour - a net loss of 30 seats
- The Liberal Democrats gain 2 seats from Labour while losing 6 to the UK Independence Party, 6 to the Scottish National Party, 17 to Labour and 23 to the Conservatives - a net loss of 50 seats
This gives a final result of:
- Labour - 302 (including 2 Deputy Speakers)
- Conservatives - 276 (including 1 Deputy Speaker)
- UK Independence Party - 24
- Scottish National Party - 21
- Northern Ireland parties - 18
- Liberal Democrats - 7
- Greens - 1
- The Speaker - 1
If this were to happen, the only viable majority Government would be a Labour/UKIP one - or a Labour/Conservative "grand coalition".
On this, UKIP and Labour both have a surge in South West England, with UKIP getting 23 seats, Labour (largest in terms of votes) 22 and the Conservatives on just 10.
And East Midlands would see a rise in Liberal Democrat support and a decline in Labour support. This would see the Liberal Democrats grab both Ashfield and Chesterfield, while coming close to winning Leicester South - and next door, Leicester West is won by the Conservatives (although, I was a bit sceptical, given that on the ComRes poll, Derbyshire North East would go Conservative).
What we can now do is take the constituency by constituency results, and in each work out the average of the three results. When we do this we find that:
- Labour gains 62 seats from the Conservatives, 16 from the Liberal Democrats and 2 from Plaid Cymru, while losing 2 to the Scottish National Party - a net gain of 78 seats
- The Scottish National Party gains 7 seats from the Liberal Democrats and 2 from Labour - a gain of 9 seats
- Plaid Cymru gains 1 seat from the Liberal Democrats but loses 2 to Labour - a net loss of 1 seat
- The Conservatives gain 32 seats from the Liberal Democrats, but lose 62 to Labour - a net loss of 30 seats
- The Liberal Democrats lose 1 seat to Plaid Cymru, 7 to the Scottish National Party, 16 to Labour and 32 to the Conservatives - a loss of 56 seats
This gives an overall result of:
- Labour - 336 (including 2 Deputy Speakers)
- Conservatives - 276 (including 1 Deputy Speaker)
- Northern Ireland parties - 18
- Scottish National Party - 15
- Plaid Cymru - 2
- Liberal Democrats - 1
- Greens - 1
- The Speaker - 1
So, the polls indicate s small Labour majority.
Once you can combine the results of 3 opinion polls this way, it is easy to extnnd it to more. I think there are 5 companies that produce regular (at least monthly) opinion polls.
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