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Monday, 8 February 2016

The Composition Of The 1994-1999 European Parliament

The overall result for the European Parliament elected in 1994 as supplied to me by the Historical Archives Unit of the European Union's Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services was:

  • Party of European Socialists (PES) - 198 (including 62 Labour and 1 Social Democratic & Labour Party)
  • European People's Party (EPP) - 158 (including 18 Conservative and 1 Ulster Unionist Party)
  • European Liberal Democrat & Reform Party (ELDR) - 42 (including 2 Liberal Democrat)
  • European United Left (EUL) - 28
  • Non-attached (NA) - 28 (including 1 Democratic Unionist Party)
  • Forza Europa (FE) - 26
  • European Democratic Alliance (EDA) - 26
  • Greens (Grn) - 23
  • European Radical Alliance (ERA) - 19 (including 2 Scottish National Party)
  • Europe of Nations (EN) - 19

Note that no single group could achieve the 284 MEPs needed for an overall majority - and the only pairing that could would be a Party of European Socialists/European People's Party one.

The earliest Member of the European Parliament was Astrid Lulling (EPP) from Luxembourg's Christian Social People's Party (the party which Jean-Claude Juncker, the current President of the European Commission, is from) who was appointed in October 1965 - however, she had left the Parliament in July 1974, and had not returned until being elected in June 1989.

Next was Doeke Eisma (ELDR) from the Netherlands' Democrats 66, who was appointed in March 1973, and left the Parliament in October 1974, not returning until filling a vacancy in June 1981.

Third was John Corrie (EPP) from the Conservatives, who had a couple of appointed terms (March to December 1975 and March 1977 to July 1979), and wouldn't return until elected MEP for Worcestershire & South Warwickshire in 1994 (the constituency I was living in at the time).

Joint fourth were Winnie Ewing (ERA) from the Scottish National Party, who was the longest continually-serving MEP, having been appointed in July 1975 and elected as MEP for Highlands & Islands at every election since then; and Niels Kofoed (ELDR) from Denmark's Left party, who had stepped down in September 1978 and returned at the 1989 election.

We can now look at the day-by-day changes:

19 July 1994: 4th European Parliament commences [PES 198, EPP 158, ELDR 42, EUL 28, NA 28, FE 26, EDA 26, Grn 23, ERA 19, EN 19]

26 September 1994: Resignation of Luis Sá (EUL, Portugal) [PES 198, EPP 158, ELDR 42, NA 28, EUL 27, FE 26, EDA 26, Grn 23, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 1]

28 September 1994: Appointment of Honório Novo (EUL, Portugal) [PES 198, EPP 158, ELDR 42, EUL 28, NA 28, FE 26, EDA 26, Grn 23, ERA 19, EN 19]

16 October 1994: Resignation of Lydie Wurth-Polfer (ELDR, Luxembourg) [PES 198, EPP 158, ELDR 41, EUL 28, NA 28, FE 26, EDA 26, Grn 23, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 1]

25 October 1994: Appointment of Charles Goerens (ELDR, Luxembourg) [PES 198, EPP 158, ELDR 42, EUL 28, NA 28, FE 26, EDA 26, Grn 23, ERA 19, EN 19]

15 December 1994: Enrico Ferri (NA, Italy) and Marilena Marin (ELDR, Italy) join Forza Europa [PES 198, EPP 158, ELDR 41, EUL 28, FE 28, NA 27, EDA 26, Grn 23, ERA 19, EN 19]

21 December 1994: Lilli Gyldenkilde (Grn, Denmark) joins European United Left [PES 198, EPP 158, ELDR 41, EUL 29, FE 28, NA 27, EDA 26, Grn 22, ERA 19, EN 19]

1 January 1995: Austria, Finland and Sweden join the European Union and interim MEPs appointed by their national Parliaments (Austria - PES 8, EPP 6, NA 5, ELDR 1, Grn 1; Finland - ELDR 6, PES 4, EPP 4, Grn 1, NA 1; Sweden - PES 11, EPP 6, EDLR 3, Grn 1, NA 1) take their seats [PES 221, EPP 174, ELDR 51, NA 34, EUL 29, FE 28, EDA 26, Grn 25, ERA 19, EN 19]

5 January 1995: Bengt Hurtig (NA, Sweden) and Marjatta Stenus-Kaukonen (NA, Finland) join European United Left, which is renamed European United Left-Nordic Green Left [PES 221, EPP 174, ELDR 51, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, FE 28, EDA 26, Grn 25, ERA 19, EN 19]

23 January 1995: Resignation of Christos Papoutsis (PES, Greece) [PES 220, EPP 174, ELDR 51, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, FE 28, EDA 26, Grn 25, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 1]

24 January 1995: Appointment of Yiannos Kranidiotis (PES, Greece) [PES 221, EPP 174, ELDR 51, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, FE 28, EDA 26, Grn 25, ERA 19, EN 19]

18 May 1995: Resignations of Yves Galland (ELDR, France) and Jean-Pierre Raffarin (EPP, France) [PES 221, EPP 173, ELDR 50, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, FE 28, EDA 26, Grn 25, ERA 19, EN 19. vacant 2]

19 May 1995: Appointments of Jean-Antoine Giansily (EDA1, France) and Jean-Thomas Nordmann (ELDR, France) [PES 221, EPP 173, ELDR 51, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, FE 28, EDA 27, Grn 25, ERA 19, EN 19]

30 June 1995: Resignation of Walter Posch (PES, Austria) [PES 220, EPP 173, ELDR 51, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, FE 28, EDA 27, Grn 25, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 1]

3 July 1995: Death of Alexander Langer (Grn, Italy) [PES 220, EPP 173, ELDR 51, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, FE 28, EDA 27, Grn 24, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 2]

5 July 1995: Forza Europa and European Democratic Alliance merge to form Union for Europe [PES 220, EPP 173, UFE 55, ELDR 51, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, Grn 24, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 2]

11 July 1995: Appointments of Albrecht Konecny (PES, Austria) and Gianni Tamino (Grn, Italy) [PES 221, EPP 173, UFE 55, ELDR 51, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, Grn 25, ERA 19, EN 19]

15 September 1995: Resignation of Maritto Segni (EPP, Italy) [PES 221, EPP 172, UFE 55, ELDR 51, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, Grn 25, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 1]

18 September 1995: Appointment of Vincenzo Viola (EPP, Italy); death of Jean Gol (ELDR, Belgium) [PES 221, EPP 173, UFE 55, ELDR 50, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, Grn 25, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 1]

20 September 1995: Pier Casini (UFE, Italy) and Enrico Ferri (UFE, Italy) join European People's Party [PES 221, EPP 175, UFE 53, ELDR 50, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, Grn 25, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 1]

30 September 1995: Resignation of Celia Villalobos Talero (EPP, Spain) [PES 221, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 50, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, Grn 25, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 2]

2 October 1995: Appointment of Jorge Hernández Mollar (EPP, Spain) [PES 221, EPP 175, UFE 53, ELDR 50, NA 32, EUL-NGL 31, Grn 25, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 1]

8 October 1995: Swedish interim MEPs (PES 11, EPP 6, EDLR 3, Grn 1, EUL-NGL 1) leave the Parliament [PES 210, EPP 169, UFE 53, ELDR 47, NA 32, EUL-NGL 30, Grn 24, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 23]

9 October 1995: Elected Swedish MEPs (PES 7, EPP 5, Grn 4, ELDR 3, EUL-NGL 3) take their seats [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 50, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 28, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 1]

11 October 1995: Jup Weber (Grn, Luxembourg) joins European Radical Alliance [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 50, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19, vacant 1]

15 October 1995: Resignation of João Soares (PES, Portugal) [PES 216, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 50, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19, vacant 2]

17 October 1995: Appointment of Carlos Candal (PES, Portugal) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 50, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19, vacant 1]

19 October 1995: Resignation of Manuel Monteiro (UFE, Portugal) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 52, ELDR 50, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19, vacant 2]

25 October 1995: Appointment of Philippe Monfils (ELDR, Belgium) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 52, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19, vacant 1]

28 October 1995: Resignation of António Vitorino (PES, Portugal) [PES 216, EPP 174, UFE 52, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19, vacant 2]

30 October 1995: Appointment of Quinídio Correia (PES, Portugal) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 52, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19, vacant 1]

31 October 1995: Appointment of Rui Vieira (UFE, Portugal) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19]

6 December 1995: Resignation of Mercedes de la Merced Monge (EPP, Spain) [PES 217, EPP 173, UFE 53, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19, vacant 1]

12 December 1995: Appointment of Felipe Camisón Asensio (EPP, Spain) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19]

14 January 1996: Resignations of Lilli Gyldenkilde (EUL-NGL, Denmark) and Mathias Reichhold (NA, Austria) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 32, NA 31, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19, vacant 2]

15 January 1996: Appointment of John Iversen (EUL-NGL, Denmark) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 31, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19, vacant 1]

17 January 1996: Appointment of Klaus Lukas (NA, Austria) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19]

24 January 1996: Resignation of Gerfrid Gaigg (EPP, Austria) [PES 217, EPP 173, UFE 53, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19, vacant 1]

25 January 1996: Appointment of Paul Rübig (EPP, Austria) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19]

1 February 1996: Resignation of Heinke Salisch (PES, Germany) [PES 216, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19, vacant 1]

6 February 1996: Appointment of Dietrich Elchlepp (PES, Germany) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19]

26 March 1996: Resignation of María Aramburu del Río (EUL-NGL, Spain) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 32, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19, vacant 1]

28 March 1996: Appointment of Abdelkader Mohamed Ali (EUL-NGL, Spain); resignation of Marco Pannella (ERA, Italy) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 19, EN 19, vacant 1]

31 March 1996: Appointment of Olivier Dupuis (ERA, Italy) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 53, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 19]

15 April 1996: Philippe-Armand Martin (EN, France) joins Union for Europe [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 18]

21 April 1996: Death of Robert Hersant (EPP, France) [PES 217, EPP 173, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 18, vacant 1]

22 April 1996: Appointment of André Fourçans (EPP, France) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 18]

25 April 1996: Resignations of Susanne Riess-Passer (NA, Austria) and Karl Schweitzer (NA, Austria) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 30, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 18, vacant 2]

26 April 1996: Appointments of Wolfgang Jung (NA, Austria) and Franz Linser (NA, Austria) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 18]

6 May 1996: Resignation of Abel Matutes Juan (EPP, Spain) [PES 217, EPP 173, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 18, vacant 1]

10 May 1996: Appointment of José Pomés Ruiz (EPP, Spain) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 18]

10 July 1996: Antonio González Triviño (Spain) leaves Party of European Socialists [PES 216, EPP 174, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 18]

17 July 1996: Antoinette Fouque (ERA, France) joins Party of European Socialists [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 33, Grn 27, ERA 19, EN 18]

19 July 1996: Resignation of Frédérique Bredin (PES, France) [PES 216, EPP 174, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 33, Grn 27, ERA 19, EN 18, vacant 1]

20 July 1996: Appointment of Marie-Arlette Carlotti (PES, France) [PES 217, EPP 174, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 33, Grn 27, ERA 19, EN 18]

2 September 1996: Death of Kenneth Stewart (PES, United Kingdom) [PES 216, EPP 174, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 33, Grn 27, ERA 19, EN 18, vacant 1]

17 September 1996: Resignation of Isidoro Sanchez Garcia (ERA, Spain) [PES 216, EPP 174, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 33, Grn 27, ERA 18, EN 18, vacant 2]

18 September 1996: Appointment of Alfonso Novo Belenguer (ERA, Spain); Antonio González Triviño (NA, Spain) joins European Radical Alliance [PES 216, EPP 174, UFE 54, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 18, vacant 1]

19 September 1996: Leonie van Bladel (PES, Netherlands) joins Union for Europe [PES 215, EPP 174, UFE 55, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 33, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 18, vacant 1]

1 October 1996: John Iversen (EUL-NGL, Denmark) joins Party of European Socialists [PES 216, EPP 174, UFE 55, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 32, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 18, vacant 1]

2 October 1996: Resignation of Friedrich König (EPP, Austria) [PES 216, EPP 173, UFE 55, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 32, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 18, vacant 2]

29 October 1996: Resignation of Michael Spindelegger (EPP, Austria) [PES 216, EPP 172, UFE 55, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 32, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 18, vacant 3]

1 November 1996: Anne Poisson (EN, France) joins Union for Europe [PES 216, EPP 172, UFE 56, ELDR 51, EUL-NGL 32, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 17, vacant 3]

6 November 1996: António Capucho (ELDR, Portugal), Carlos Costa Neves (ELDR, Portugal), Arlindo Cunha (ELDR, Portugal), Eurico de Melo (ELDR, Portugal), Nélio Mendonça (ELDR, Portugal), Carlos Pimenta (ELDR, Portugal), Manuel Porto (ELDR, Portugal) and Helena Vaz da Silva (ELDR, Portugal) join European People's Party [PES 216, EPP 180, UFE 56, ELDR 43, EUL-NGL 32, NA 32, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 17, vacant 3]

10 November 1996: Austrian (PES 8, EPP 4, NA 5, ELDR 1, Grn 1) and Finnish (ELDR 6, PES 4, EPP 4, EUL-NGL 1, Grn 1) interim MEPs leave the Parliament; resignation of Enrico Montesano (PES, Italy) [PES 203, EPP 172, UFE 56, ELDR 36, EUL-NGL 31, NA 27, Grn 25, ERA 20, EN 17, vacant 39]

11 November 1996: Elected Austrian (EPP 7, PES 6, NA 6, ELDR 1, Grn 1) and Finnish (ELDR 5, PES 4, EPP 4, EUL-NGL 2, Grn 1) MEPs take their seats; Georges Berthu (France), Johannes Blokland (Netherlands), Jens-Peter Bonde (Denmark), Charles de Gaulle (France), Philippe de Villiers (France), Edouard des Places (France), Hervé Fabre-Aubrespy (France), James Golsmith (France), Thierry Jean-Pierre (France), Lis Jensen (Denmark), Ole Krarup (Denmark), Ulla Sandbæk (Denmark), Françoise Seillier (France), Dominique Souchet (France), Frédéric Striby (France) and Leen van der Waal (Netherlands) leave Europe of Nations; appointment of Pasqualina Napoletano (PES, Italy) [PES 214, EPP 183, UFE 56, NA 49, ELDR 42, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 1, vacant 1]

12 December 1996: Election of Richard Corbett (PES, United Kingdom) [PES 215, EPP 183, UFE 56, NA 49, ELDR 42, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 1]

13 December 1996: Alessandro Fontana (UFE, Italy) joins European People's Party [PES 215, EPP 184, UFE 55, NA 49, ELDR 42, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, EN 1]

31 December 1996: Noël Mamère (ERA, France) joins Greens [PES 215, EPP 184, UFE 55, NA 49, ELDR 42, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 19, EN 1]

1 January 1997: James Janssen van Raay (EPP, Netherlands) joines Union for Europe and Bernard Kouchner (PES, France) joins European Radical Alliance [PES 214, EPP 183, UFE 56, NA 49, ELDR 42, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, EN 1]

13 January 1997: Georges Berthu (NA, France), Johannes Blokland (NA, Netherlands), Jens-Peter Bonde (NA, Denmark), Charles de Gaulle (NA, France), Philippe de Villiers (NA, France), Edouard des Places (NA, France), Hervé Fabre-Aubrespy (NA, France), James Golsmith (NA, France), Thierry Jean-Pierre (NA, France), Lis Jensen (NA, Denmark), Ole Krarup (NA, Denmark), Jim Nicholson (EPP, United Kingdom), Ulla Sandbæk (NA, Denmark), Françoise Seillier (NA, France), Dominique Souchet (NA, France), Frédéric Striby (NA, France) and Leen van der Waal (NA, Netherlands) form Independents for a Europe of Nations [PES 214, EPP 182, UFE 56, ELDR 42, EUL-NGL 33, NA 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 17, EN 1]

17 January 1997: Resignation of Rui Vieira (UFE, Portugal) [PES 214, EPP 182, UFE 55, ELDR 42, EUL-NGL 33, NA 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 17, EN 1, vacant 1]

18 January 1997: Appointment of Maria Cardona (UFE, Portugal) [PES 214, EPP 182, UFE 56, ELDR 42, EUL-NGL 33, NA 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 17, EN 1]

1 February 1997: Luigi Caligaris (Italy) leaves Union for Europe [PES 214, EPP 182, UFE 55, ELDR 42, NA 34, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 17, EN 1]

3 February 1997: Resignation of Yiannos Kranidiotis (PES, Greece) [PES 213, EPP 182, UFE 55, ELDR 42, NA 34, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 17, EN 1, vacant 1]

4 February 1997: Resignation of Bernard Tapie (ERA, France) [PES 213, EPP 182, UFE 55, ELDR 42, NA 34, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 19, IEN 17, EN 1, vacant 2]

5 February 1997: Appointment of Michel Scarbonchi (ERA, France) [PES 213, EPP 182, UFE 55, ELDR 42, NA 34, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 17, EN 1, vacant 1]

6 February 1997: Appointment of Anna Karamanou (PES, Greece) [PES 214, EPP 182, UFE 55, ELDR 42, NA 34, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 17, EN 1]

19 February 1997: Luigi Caligaris (NA, Italy) and Stefano de Luca (UFE, Italy) join European Liberal Democrat & Reform Party; Umberto Bossi (Italy), Gipo Farassino (Italy), Marco Formentini (Italy) and Luigi Moretti (Italy) leave European Liberal Democrat & Reform Party [PES 214, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 37, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 17, EN 1]

30 April 1997: Resignation of René-Emile Piquet (EUL-NGL, France) [PES 214, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 37, EUL-NGL 32, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 17, EN 1, vacant 1]

1 May 1997: Appointment of Jean Querbes (EUL-NGL, France) [PES 214, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 37, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 17, EN 1]

5 June 1997: Resignations of Elisabeth Guigou (PES, France), Bernard Kouchner (ERA, France), Pierre Moscovici (PES, France) and Catherine Trautmann (PES, France) [PES 211, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 37, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 19, IEN 17, EN 1, vacant 4]

6 June 1997: Appointments of Jean Cottigney (PES, France), Olivier Duhamel (PES, France), Georges Garot (PES, France) and Marie-Noëlle Lienemann (PES, France) [PES 215, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 37, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 19, IEN 17, EN 1]

15 June 1997: Resignation of Philippe de Villiers (IEN, France) [PES 215, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 37, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

17 June 1997: Appointment of Eric Pinel (NA, France) [PES 215, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1]

15 July 1997: Resignation of Nicole Pery (PES, France) [PES 214, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

17 July 1997: Appointment of Marie-José Denys (PES, France) [PES 215, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1]

19 July 1997: Death of James Goldsmith (IEN, France) [PES 215, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 19, IEN 15, EN 1, vacant 1]

20 July 1997: Appointment of Stéphane Buffetaut (IEN, France) [PES 215, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1]

31 July 1997: Resignation of Jack Lang (PES, France) [PES 214, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

2 August 1997: Appointment of Henri Weber (PES, France) [PES 215, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1]

11 August 1997: Resignation of Noël Mamère (Grn, France) [PES 215, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

13 August 1997: Appointment of Henri de Lassus Saint Genies (ERA, France) [PES 215, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1]

31 August 1997: Resignation of Christian Jacob (UFE, France) [PES 215, EPP 182, UFE 53, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

1 September 1997: Resignation of Leen van der Waal (IEN, Netherlands) [PES 215, EPP 182, UFE 53, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 15, EN 1, vacant 2]

2 September 1997: Appointments of Pierre Lataillade (UFE, France) and Rijk van Dam (IEN, Netherlands) [PES 215, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1]

17 September 1997: Resignation of Henri Weber (PES, France) [PES 214, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

18 September 1997: Appointment of Marie-Thérèse Mutin (PES, France) [PES 215, EPP 182, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1]

2 October 1997: Resignation of Dominique Baudis (EPP, France) [PES 215, EPP 181, UFE 54, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

3 October 1997: Appointment of Roger Karoutchi (UFE2, France) [PES 215, EPP 181, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1]

6 October 1997: Resignation of Siegbert Alber (EPP, Germany) [PES 215, EPP 180, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

10 October 1997: Appointment of Rainer Wieland (EPP, Germany) [PES 215, EPP 181, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1]

1 January 1998: Hugh Kerr (PES, United Kingdom) joins Greens [PES 214, EPP 181, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1]

12 January 1998: Ken Coates (PES, United Kingdom) joins European United Left-Nordic Green Left [PES 213, EPP 181, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1]

31 March 1998: Resignation of Norman West (PES, United Kingdom) [PES 212, EPP 181, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

21 April 1998: Death of Spalato Bellerè (NA, Italy) [PES 212, EPP 181, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 37, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 2]

24 April 1998: Resignation of Bernard Stasi (EPP, France) [PES 212, EPP 180, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 37, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 3]

25 April 1998: Appointment of Bernard Lehideux (EPP, France) [PES 212, EPP 181, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 37, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 2]

30 April 1998: Resignation of Raymonde Dury (PES, Belgium) [PES 211, EPP 181, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 37, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 3]

1 May 1998: Appointment of Claude Delcroix (PES, Belgium) [PES 212, EPP 181, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 37, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 2]

6 May 1998: Appointment of Luciano Schifone (NA, Italy) [PES 212, EPP 181, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

7 May 1998: Election of Linda McAvan (PES, United Kingdom) [PES 213, EPP 181, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1]

22 May 1998: Death of Francisco Lucas Pires (EPP, Portugal) [PES 213, EPP 180, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

25 May 1998: Luciano Pettinari (EUL-NGL, Italy) joins Party of European Socialists [PES 214, EPP 180, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

8 June 1998: Appointment of José Mendes Bota (EPP, Portugal) [PES 214, EPP 181, UFE 55, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1]

15 June 1998: Guido Podestá (UFE, Italy), Giacomo Santini (UFE, Italy), Umberto Scapagnini (UFE, Italy) and Guido Viceconte (UFE, Italy) join European People's Party [PES 214, EPP 185, UFE 51, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1]

16 June 1998: Antonio Tajani (UFE, Italy) joins European People's Party [PES 214, EPP 186, UFE 50, ELDR 40, NA 38, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1]

6 July 1998: Aldo Arroni (UFE, Italy), Claudio Azzolini (UFE, Italy), Monica Baldi (UFE, Italy), Gian Boniperti (UFE, Italy), Ombretta Colli Comelli (UFE, Italy), Alessandro Danesin (UFE, Italy), Pietro di Prima (UFE, Italy), Luigi Florio (UFE, Italy), Riccardo Garosci (UFE, Italy), Giacomo Leopardi (UFE, Italy), Giancarlo Ligabue (UFE, Italy), Franco Malerba (UFE, Italy), Eolo Parodi (UFE, Italy) and Luisa Todini (UFE, Italy) join European People's Party [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 28, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1]

13 July 1998: Carlo Ripa di Meana (Grn, Italy) joins European United Left-Nordic Green Left [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1]

2 August 1998: Resignation of Gijs de Vries (ELDR, Netherlands) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 39, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

25 August 1998: Death of Allan Macartney (ERA, United Kingdom) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 39, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 2]

31 August 1998: Resignation of Nel van Dijk (Grn, Netherlands) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 39, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 26, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 3]

1 September 1998: Appointments of Robert Goedbloed (ELDR, Netherlands) and Joost Lagendijk (Grn, Netherlands) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

14 September 1998: Resignation of António Capucho (EPP, Portugal) [PES 214, EPP 199, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 2]

15 September 1998: Appointment of Carlos Coelho (EPP, Portugal) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

2 October 1998: Resignation of José Apolinário (PES, Portugal) [PES 213, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 2]

3 October 1998: Appointment of Elisa Damião (PES, Portugal) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

4 October 1998: Resignations of Birgitta Ahlqvist (PES, Sweden) and Tommy Waidelich (PES, Sweden) [PES 212, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 3]

6 October 1998: Appointments of Veronica Palm (PES, Sweden) and Yvonne Sandberg-Fries (PES, Sweden) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

7 October 1998: Resignation of Alfonso Novo Belenguer (ERA, Spain) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 18, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 2]

8 October 1998: Appointment of Manuel Escola Hernando (ERA, Spain) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

11 October 1998: Resignation of Achille Occhetto (PES, Italy) [PES 213, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 2]

14 October 1998: Resignation of Jaak Vandemeulebroucke (ERA, Belgium) [PES 213, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 18, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 3]

16 October 1998: Appointment of Nelly Maes (ERA, Belgium) [PES 213, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 2]

19 October 1998: James Moorhouse (EPP, United Kingdom) joins European Liberal Democrat & Reform Party [PES 213, EPP 199, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 2]

26 October 1998: Resignation of Giampaolo d'Andrea (EPP, Italy) [PES 213, EPP 198, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 3]

11 November 1998: Appointments of Gaetano Carrozzo (PES, Italy) and Giuseppe Mottola (EPP, Italy) [PES 214, EPP 199, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 1]

18 November 1998: Resignation of Claudia Roth (Grn, Germany) [PES 214, EPP 199, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 26, ERA 19, IEN 16, EN 1, vacant 2]

19 November 1998: Thierry Jean-Pierre (IEN, France) joins European People's Party [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 26, ERA 19, IEN 15, EN 1, vacant 2]

23 November 1998: Appointment of Ozan Ceyhun (Grn, Germany) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 19, IEN 15, EN 1, vacant 1]

26 November 1998: Election of Ian Hudghton (ERA, United Kingdom) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 15, EN 1]

2 December 1998: Marie-France de Rose (EN, France) joins European People's Party [PES 214, EPP 201, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 36, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 15]

16 December 1998: Roberto Mezzaroma (UFE, Italy) joins European People's Party [PES 214, EPP 202, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 35, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 15]

29 December 1998: Raymond Chesa (UFE, France) joins Independents for a Europe of Nations [PES 214, EPP 202, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 16]

5 January 1999: Resignation of Josu Imaz San Miguel (EPP, Spain) [PES 214, EPP 201, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 20, IEN 16, vacant 1]

21 January 1999: Appointment of José Posada González (ERA3, Spain) [PES 214, EPP 201, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 16]

31 January 1999: Resignation of Carmen Díez de Rivera Icaza (PES, Spain) [PES 213, EPP 201, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 16, vacant 1]

4 February 1999: Appointment of Carlos Bru Purón (PES, Spain) [PES 214, EPP 201, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 16]

28 March 1999: Resignation of Outi Ojala (EUL-NGL, Finland) [PES 214, EPP 201, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 16, vacant 1]

29 March 1999: Resignation of Kirsi Piha (EPP, Finland) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 16, vacant 2]

30 March 1999: Resignations of Sirkka-Liisa Anttila (ELDR, Finland) and Fernando Morán López (PES, Spain) [PES 213, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 16, vacant 4]

9 April 1999: Appointment of Juan de Dios Ramírez Heredia (PES, Spain) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 40, NA 38, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 33, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 16, vacant 3]

13 April 1999: Appointments of Inna Ilivitzky (EUL-NGL, Finland), Ritva Laurila (EPP, Finland) and Samuli Pohjamo (ELDR, Finland) [PES 214, EPP 201, ELDR 41, NA 38, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 16]

19 April 1999: Charles de Gaulle (France) leaves Independents for a Europe of Nations [PES 214, EPP 201, ELDR 41, NA 39, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 15]

22 April 1999: Resignation of Marlies Mosiek-Urbahn (EPP, Germany) [PES 214, EPP 200, ELDR 41, NA 39, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 15, vacant 1]

23 April 1999: Appointment of Michael Gahler (EPP, Germany) [PES 214, EPP 201, ELDR 41, NA 39, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 15]

10 June 1999: Election for 5th European Parliament held in Denmark, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

11 June 1999: Election for 5th European Parliament held in Ireland.

13 June 1999: Election for 5th European Parliament held in Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain and Sweden.

14 June 1999: Resignation of Laurens Brinkhorst (ELDR, Netherlands) [PES 214, EPP 201, ELDR 40, NA 39, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 15, vacant 1]

20 June 1999: Resignation of Jesús Cabezón Alonso (PES, Spain) [PES 213, EPP 201, ELDR 40, NA 39, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 15, vacant 2]

28 June 1999: Resignation of Anne-Marie Neyts-Uyttebroeck (ELDR, Belgium) [PES 213, EPP 201, ELDR 39, NA 39, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 15, vacant 3]

30 June 1999: Resignation of Georges de Brémond d'Ars (EPP, France) [PES 213, EPP 200, ELDR 39, NA 39, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 15, vacant 4]

1 July 1999: Resignation of Nélio Mendonça (EPP, Portugal) [PES 213, EPP 199, ELDR 39, NA 39, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 15, vacant 5]

12 July 1999: Resignation of Laura de Esteban Martin (EPP, Spain) [PES 213, EPP 198, ELDR 39, NA 39, UFE 34, EUL-NGL 34, Grn 27, ERA 21, IEN 15, vacant 6]

19 July 1999: Term of 4th European Parliament expires.

Notes:

1 Giansily was replacing Raffarin - at a national level, Giansily was from the National Centre of Independents & Peasants, a small party which was allied with Raffarin's Union for French Democracy.

2 Baudis was from Union for French Democracy (which was part of the EPP group), while Karoutchi was from Rally for the Republic (which was part of the UFE group). These parties had fought the 1994 election on a combined list.

3 Imaz San Miguel was from the Basque Nationalist Party, which contested the European election as part of the National Coalition - Posada González was from another regionalist party in the National Coalition, viz. the Galician Coalition.

We can look at the initial breakdown of seats country-by-country:

Country Group
PES EPP ELDR EUL NA FE EDA Grn ERA EN
Belgium 6 7 6 0 3 0 0 2 1 0
Denmark 3 3 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 4
France 15 13 1 7 11 0 14 0 13 13
Germany 40 47 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0
Greece 10 9 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 0
Ireland 1 4 1 0 0 0 7 2 0 0
Italy 18 13 6 5 13 26 0 4 2 0
Luxembourg 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Netherlands 8 10 10 0 0 0 0 1 0 2
Portugal 10 1 8 3 0 0 3 0 0 0
Spain 22 30 2 9 0 0 0 0 1 0
United Kingdom 63 19 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 0

The rules on group forming in the Parliament were a lot more relaxed - the current rules require 25 MEPs from at least one-quarter of member nations (i.e. 7).

If such rules had been in place after the 1994 election, then Forza Europa would fail to meet the criteria (its MEPs were from only one country) and the Greens, European Radical Alliance and Europe of Nations would not have enough MEPs. In those circumstances, it is reasonable to assume that the merger of Forza Europa and the European Democratic Alliance would have occurred when the Parliament first met, and the merger of the Greens and the European Radical Alliance to form a single group (which happened in July 1999) would have happened 5 years earlier.

The 1989 European Election Results On The 1994 Boundaries

At 4 elections - June 1979, June 1984, June 1989 and June 1984 - Great Britain elected our Members of the European Parliament using Single Member Plurality (often called First Past The Post). The way that the Parliament has changed in size can be seen in the table below:

Election MEPs Nations
United Kingdom In total
June 1979 81 410 9
June 1984 81 434 10
June 1989 81 518 12
June 1994 87 567 12
June 1999 87 626 15
June 2004 78 732 25
June 2009 72 736 27
May 2014 73 751 28

Until 1994, the number of MEPs that "The Nine" (Belgium, Denmark, France, Federal Republic of Germany, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, United Kingdom) had remained constant, and the four largest nations (France, Germany, Italy, UK) each had 81 MEPs. The expansion in the Parliament's size was Greece being given 24 MEPs when it joined in January 1981, and Portugal and Spain being given 24 and 60 MEPs respectively when they joined in January 1986.

By 1994 there had been two major changes. Firstly, the old German Democratic Republic had been absorbed into the Federal Republic in October 1990, and as a consequence, the parity in seats for the four largest nations ended. Germany received an additional 18 seats (bringing it up to 99), while France, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom each received an extra 6 seats, Span received an extra 4, with Belgium, Greece and Portugal (all of whom had had 24 MEPs) received an extra seat each - creating an extra 49 seats. The second big change was the Treaty of Maastricht coming into force in November 1993, replacing the European Communities with the European Union, and giving the Parliament more powers.

January 1995 saw Austria (21 MEPs), Finland (16 MEPs) and Sweden (22 MEPs) join, pushing the Parliament up to 626 seats.

The Treaty of Nice came into force in February 2003, setting an upper limit of 732 MEPs (which could be breached, temporarily, if new countries joined between elections).

In May 2004 there was a major expansion of the EU, with Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia joining, bringing the EU to 25 member nations. The Parliament elected the following month saw many countries have a reduction in MEPs in order to keep the Nice cap.

In January 2007 Bulgaria (18 MEPs) and Romania (35 MEPs) joined the EU, brinng the Parliament up to 785 MEPs. As this was mid-term, breaching the Nice cap was not an issue, but the size of the Parliament was reduced by 49 members for the 2009 election. Croatia - with 12 MEPs - joined in July 2013, bringing the Parliament up to 748.

The Treaty of Lisbon came into force in December 2009, which set the size of the Parliament at 750 members from the 2014 election, with each nation being entitled to a minimum of 6 and a maximum of 96 seats. Historically, France, Italy and the United Kingdom had the same number of seats, but this Treaty put France on 74, the United Kingdom on 73 and Italy on 72. To ensure Italy was treated equally as the United Kingdom, the size was increased to 751 members.

The June 1989 European election had given the result:

  • Labour - 45
  • Conservative - 32
  • Scottish National Party - 1
  • Democratic Unionist Party - 1
  • Social Democratic & Labour Party - 1
  • Ulster Unionist Party - 1

The 1989 election was controversial as the Greens obtained their best ever result - 14.42% of the vote - but won no seats. This was the first election I was really aware of, as - although I was too young to vote - most of the students at my sixth-form college were able to. Our European constituency - Dorset East & West Hampshire - was one where the Greens came second.

Labour's 38.72% was their best result in a national election since the October 1974 general election, and ended up being their highest share of the vote under Neil Kinnock's leadership (the April 1992 general election saw their share of the vote fall from 1989). The Conservatives' 33.54% was their worst result in a national election since the April/May 1859 general election.

The 1989 election was also the last national election with Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister.

The following 26 seats were unchanged:

  • Birmingham East
  • Birmingham West
  • Durham
  • Fife & Mid Scotland
  • Glasgow
  • Highlands & Islands
  • Leeds
  • London Central
  • London East
  • London North
  • London North East
  • London North West
  • London West
  • Lothians
  • Merseyside East (renamed Merseyside East & Wigan)
  • Merseyside West
  • Midlands West
  • Northern Ireland (3-member constituency)
  • Northumbria
  • Scotland North East
  • Scotland South
  • Strathclyde East
  • Strathclyde West
  • Thames Valley
  • Tyne & Wear
  • Yorkshire South

Next we can look at how the 1984/1989 constituencies were split up for 1994:

Constituency Percentage New constituency
Bedfordshire South 56.81% Bedfordshire & Milton Keynes
29.94% Hertfordshire
13.25% Essex West & East Hertfordshire
Bristol 75.11% Bristol
24.89% Wiltshire North & Bath
Cambridge & North Bedfordshire 72.66% Cambridgeshire
27.34% Bedfordshire & Milton Keynes
Cheshire East 57.96% Cheshire East
14.31% Peak District
14.30% Cheshire West & Wirral
13.44% Staffordshire West & Congleton
Cheshire West 86.05% Cheshire West & Wirral
13.95% Cheshire East
Cleveland & North Yorkshire 86.80% Cleveland & Richmond
13.20% North Yorkshire
Cornwall & Plymouth 87.77% Cornwall & West Plymouth
12.23% Devon & East Plymouth
Cotswolds 72.61% Cotswolds
14.67% Worcestershire & South Warwickshire
12.73% Buckinghamshire & East Oxfordshire
Cumbria & North Lancashire 89.27% Cumbria & North Lancashire
10.73% Lancashire Central
Derbyshire 63.62% Peak District
24.63% Staffordshire East & Derby
11.75% Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield
Devon 75.43% Devon & East Plymouth
13.14% Dorset & East Devon
11.44% Somerset & North Devon
Dorset East & West Hampshire 62.44% Dorset & East Devon
37.56% Itchen, Test & Avon
Essex North East 67.30% Essex North & South Suffolk
32.70% Essex South
Essex South West 50.28% Essex West & East Hertfordshire
49.72% Essex South
Greater Manchester Central 61.58% Greater Manchester Central
25.23% Cheshire East
13.20% Greater Manchester West
Greater Manchester East 62.24% Greater Manchester East
37.76% Greater Manchester Central
Greater Manchester West 86.65% Greater Manchester West
13.35% Lancashire South
Hampshire Central 42.92% Hampshire North & Oxford
42.74% Itchen, Test & Avon
14.34% Wight & South Hampshire
Hereford & Worcester 51.27% Worcestershire & South Warwickshire
35.48% Hereford & Shropshire
13.25% Cotswolds
Hertfordshire 70.73% Hertfordshire
29.27% Essex West & East Hertfordshire
Humberside 70.61% Humberside
29.39% Lincolnshire & South Humberside
Kent East 87.22% Kent East
12.78% Kent West
Kent West 74.34% Kent West
25.66% East Sussex & South Kent
Lancashire Central 56.83% Lancashire Central
43.17% Lancashire South
Lancashire East 39.08% Lancashire South
35.99% Greater Manchester East
24.93% Lancashire Central
Leicester 61.56% Leicester
24.59% Coventry & North Warwickshire
13.86% Nottingham & North West Leicestershire
Lincolnshire 64.28% Lincolnshire & South Humberside
23.09% Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield
12.63% Leicester
London South & East Surrey 85.61% London South & East Surrey
14.39% Surrey
London South East 91.31% London South East
8.69% London South Inner
London South Inner 89.01% London South Inner
10.99% London South West
London South West 85.97% London South West
14.03% London South & East Surrey
Midlands Central 71.94% Coventry & North Warwickshire
28.06% Worcestershire & South Warwickshire
Norfolk 86.75% Norfolk
13.25% Suffolk & South West Norfolk
Northamptonshire 87.09% Northamptonshire & Blaby
12.91% Leicester
Nottingham 62.48% Nottingham & North West Leicestershire
24.66% Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield
12.85% Peak District
Oxford & Buckinghamshire 75.14% Buckinghamshire & East Oxfordshire
24.86% Hampshire North & Oxford
Sheffield 74.20% Sheffield
25.80% Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield
Shropshire & Stafford 51.36% Hereford & Shropshire
36.74% Staffordshire West & Congleton
11.89% Staffordshire East & Derby
Somerset & West Dorset 75.35% Somerset & North Devon
13.20% Bristol
11.45% Dorset & East Devon
Staffordshire East 51.68% Staffordshire East & Derby
35.93% Staffordshire West & Congleton
12.39% Nottingham & North West Leicestershire
Suffolk 70.63% Suffolk & South West Norfolk
15.25% Essex North & South Suffolk
14.13% Cambridgeshire
Surrey West 85.83% Surrey
14.17% South Downs West
Sussex East 66.46% East Sussex & South Kent
33.54% Sussex South & Crawley
Sussex West 55.63% Sussex South & Crawley
44.37% South Downs West
Wales Mid & West 58.28% Wales Mid & West
41.72% Wales South West
Wales North 86.46% Wales North
13.54% Wales Mid & West
Wales South 69.11% Wales South Central
30.89% Wales South West
Wales South East 80.63% Wales South East
19.37% Wales South Central
Wight & East Hampshire 70.88% Wight & South Hampshire
29.12% South Downs West
Wiltshire 61.14% Wiltshire North & Bath
25.72% Hampshire North & Oxford
13.14% Itchen, Test & Avon
York 71.87% North Yorkshire
28.13% Humberside
Yorkshire South West 88.08% Yorkshire South West
11.92% Sheffield
Yorkshire West 86.51% Yorkshire West
13.49% Yorkshire South West

We can now identify the 1984-1994 constituencies with their successors (if any) and will also look at which MEPs were seeking re-election in 1994:

Constituency MEP Standing for re-election? Successor constituency
Bedfordshire South Peter Beazley No Bedfordshire & Milton Keynes
Birmingham East Christine Crawley Yes Birmingham East
Birmingham West John Tomlinson Yes Birmingham West
Bristol Ian White Yes Bristol
Cambridge & North Bedfordshire Fred Catherwood No Cambridgeshire
Cheshire East Brian Simpson Yes Cheshire East
Cheshire West Lyndon Harrison Yes Cheshire West & Wirral
Cleveland & North Yorkshire David Bowe Yes Cleveland & Richmond
Cornwall & Plymouth Christopher Beazley Yes Cornwall & West Plymouth
Cotswolds Henry Plumb Yes Cotswolds
Cumbria & North Lancashire Richard Fletcher-Vane [a] Yes Cumbria & North Lancashire
Derbyshire Geoff Hoon [b] No Peak District
Devon Charles Strachey [c] Resigned seat May 1994 Devon & East Plymouth
Dorset East & West Hampshire Bryan Cassidy Yes Dorset & East Devon
Durham Stephen Hughes Yes Durham
Essex North East Anne McIntosh Yes Essex North & South Suffolk
Essex South West Patricia Rawlings Yes Essex West & East Hertfordshire
Fife & Mid Scotland Alex Falconer Yes Fife & Mid Scotland
Glasgow Janey Buchan No Glasgow
Greater Manchester Central Eddie Newman Yes Greater Manchester Central
Greater Manchester East Glyn Ford Yes Greater Manchester East
Greater Manchester West Gary Titley Yes Greater Manchester West
Hampshire Central Edward Kellett-Bowman Yes Hampshire North & Oxford
Hereford & Worcester James Scott-Hopkins No Worcestershire & South Warwickshire
Hertfordshire Derek Prag No Hertfordshire
Highlands & Islands Winnie Ewing Yes Highlands & Islands
Humberside Peter Crampton Yes Humberside
Kent East Christopher Jackson Yes Kent East
Kent West Ben Patterson Yes Kent East
Lancashire Central Michael Welsh Yes Lancashire Central
Lancashire East Michael Hindley Yes None [d]
Leeds Michael McGowan Yes Leeds
Leicester Mel Read Yes Leicester
Lincolnshire Bill Newton-Dunn Yes Lincolnshire & South Humberside
London Central Stan Newens Yes London Central
London East Carole Tongue Yes London East
London North Pauline Green Yes London North
London North East Alf Lomas Yes London North East
London North West Nicholas Bethell [e] Yes London North West
London South & East Surrey James Moorhouse Yes London South & East Surrey
London South East Peter Price Yes London South East
London South Inner Richard Balfe Yes London South Inner
London South West Anita Pollack Yes London South West
London West Michael Elliott Yes London West
Lothians David Martin Yes Lothians
Merseyside East Terry Wynn Yes Merseyside East & Wigan
Merseyside West Kenneth Stewart Yes Merseyside West
Midlands Central Christine Oddy Yes Coventry & North Warwickshire
Midlands West John Bird No Midlands West
Norfolk Paul Howell Yes Norfolk
Northamptonshire Anthony Simpson Yes Northamptonshire & Blaby
Northumbria Gordon Adam Yes Northumbria
Nottingham Ken Coates Yes Nottingham & North West Leicestershire
Oxford & Buckinghamshire James Elles Yes Buckinghamshire & East Oxfordshire
Scotland North East Henry McCubbin Yes Scotland North East
Scotland South Alex Smith Yes Scotland South
Sheffield Roger Barton Yes Sheffield
Shropshire & Stafford Christopher Prout Yes Hereford & Shropshire
Somerset & West Dorset Margaret Daly Yes Somerset & North Devon
Staffordshire East George Stevenson [f] No Staffordshire East & Derby
Strathclyde East Ken Collins Yes Strathclyde East
Strathclyde West Hugh McMahon Yes Strathclyde West
Suffolk Amédée Turner Yes Suffolk & South West Norfolk
Surrey West Tom Spencer Yes Surrey
Sussex East Jack Stewart-Clark Yes East Sussex & South Kent
Sussex West Madron Seligman No Sussex South & Crawley
Thames Valley John Stevens Yes Thames Valley
Tyne & Wear Alan Donnelly Yes Tyne & Wear
Wales Mid & West David Morris Yes Wales Mid & West
Wales North Joe Wilson Yes Wales North
Wales South Wayne David Yes Wales South Central
Wales South East Llew Smith [g] No Wales South East
Wight & East Hampshire Richard Simmonds No Wight & South Hampshire
Wiltshire Caroline Jackson Yes Wiltshire North & Bath
York Edward McMillan-Scott Yes North Yorkshire
Yorkshire South Norman West Yes Yorkshire South
Yorkshire South West Tom Megahy Yes Yorkshire South West
Yorkshire West Barry Seal Yes Yorkshire West
None Essex South
None Itchen, Test & Avon
None Lancashire South
None Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield
None South Downs West
None Staffordshire West & Congleton
None Wales South West

[a] Fletcher-Vane became the 2nd Lord Inglewood a week after the 1989 election.

[b] Hoon was elected Labour MP for Ashfield (which lay within his European constituency) at the 1992 general election.

[c] Strachey was a member of the House of Lords as the 4th Lord O'Hagan.

[d] While it might appear that Lancashire South is the natural successor to Lancashire East, it picked up more voters from Lancashire Central than from Lancashire East.

[e] Bethell was also a member of the House of Lords as the 4th Lord Bethell.

[f] Stevenson was elected Labour MP for Stoke-on-Trent South (which lay within his European constituency) at the 1992 general election.

[g] Smith was elected Labour MP for Blaenau Gwent (which lay within his European constituency) at the 1992 general election.

Note that not every MEP seeking re-election stood in their successor seat:

MEP Successor seat Stood in
Ken Coates Nottingham & North West Leicestershire Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield
Michael Hindley None Lancashire South
Edward Kellett-Bowman Hampshire North & Oxford Itchen, Test & Avon
David Morris Wales Mid & West Wales South West
Mel Read Leicester Nottingham & North West Leicestershire

We can now look at the partisan effects of the new constituencies:

Party Seats Changing hands due to boundary changes Abolished seats Created seats Notional seats
Gained Lost
Labour 45 1 1 1 4 48
Conservative 32 1 1 0 3 35
Scottish National Party 1 0 0 0 0 1
Democratic Unionist Party 1 0 0 0 0 1
Social Democratic & Labour Party 1 0 0 0 0 1
Ulster Unionist Party 1 0 0 0 0 1

The notional results are:

Labour (48 seats)

Constituency Majority Runner-up Held in 1994?
Tyne & Wear 95,780 Conservative Yes
Yorkshire South 91,784 Conservative Yes
Durham 86,848 Conservative Yes
Wales South East 79,195 Conservative Yes
Merseyside East & Wigan 76,867 Conservative Yes
Wales South West 69,762 Conservative Yes
Sheffield 65,558 Conservative Yes
Yorkshire South West 61,293 Conservative Yes
Strathclyde East 60,317 Scottish National Party Yes
Northumbria 60,040 Conservative Yes
Glasgow 59,232 Scottish National Party Yes
Greater Manchester East 58,959 Conservative Yes
Wales South Central 57,554 Conservative Yes
Fife & Mid Scotland 52,157 Scottish National Party Yes
Merseyside West 49,817 Conservative Yes
Greater Manchester West 49,400 Conservative Yes
London North East 47,767 Conservative Yes
Birmingham East 46,948 Conservative Yes
Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield 46,772 Conservative Yes
Leeds 42,518 Conservative Yes
Midlands West 42,364 Conservative Yes
London South Inner 42,186 Conservative Yes
Strathclyde West 39,591 Scottish National Party Yes
Lothians 38,826 Conservative Yes
Cleveland & Richmond 33,643 Conservative Yes
Yorkshire West 32,070 Conservative Yes
Birmingham West 30,860 Conservative Yes
London East 27,385 Conservative Yes
Greater Manchester Central 27,284 Conservative Yes
Staffordshire West & Congleton 20,090 Conservative Yes
Coventry & North Warwickshire 20,002 Conservative Yes
Lancashire South 19,856 Conservative Yes
Staffordshire East & Derby 18,461 Conservative Yes
Cheshire West & Wirral 16,858 Conservative Yes
Cheshire East 16,805 Conservative Yes
Scotland South 15,693 Conservative Yes
London West 14,808 Conservative Yes
London Central 11,542 Conservative Yes
Wales Mid & West 11,527 Conservative Yes
London South West 10,723 Conservative Yes
Wales North 9,378 Conservative Yes
Bristol 7,715 Conservative Yes
London North 5,837 Conservative Yes
Nottingham & North West Leicestershire 4,966 Conservative Yes
Humberside 4,389 Conservative Yes
Peak District 3,651 Conservative Yes
Scotland North East 2,613 Scottish National Party No - lost to Scottish National Party
Cumbria & North Lancashire 1,610 Conservative Yes

Conservative (35 seats)

Constituency Majority Runner-up Held in 1994?
Dorset & East Devon 51,621 Green Yes
Devon & East Plymouth 49,889 Green Yes
Buckinghamshire & East Oxfordshire 49,596 Green Yes
North Yorkshire 45,176 Green Yes
South Downs West 44,913 Green Yes
East Sussex & South Kent 42,656 Green Yes
Somerset & North Devon 42,206 Green No - lost to Liberal Democrat
Surrey 42,112 Green Yes
Itchen, Test & Avon 39,047 Labour Yes
Hampshire North & Oxford 36,794 Labour Yes
Sussex South & Crawley 36,499 Labour Yes
Wight & South Hampshire 33,315 Labour Yes
London South & East Surrey 32,100 Labour Yes
Essex West & East Hertfordshire 30,012 Labour No - lost to Labour
Cambridgeshire 29,878 Labour Yes
Cotswolds 29,760 Labour Yes
Hertfordshire 29,462 Labour No - lost to Labour
Essex North & South Suffolk 27,048 Labour Yes
Wiltshire North & Bath 26,912 Labour Yes
Worcestershire & South Warwickshire 26,635 Labour Yes
Thames Valley 26,491 Labour Yes
Kent East 23,108 Labour No - lost to Labour
Hereford & Shropshire 22,967 Labour No - lost to Labour
Lincolnshire & South Humberside 17,976 Labour No - lost to Labour
Suffolk & South West Norfolk 17,905 Labour No - lost to Labour
Cornwall & West Plymouth 16,746 Liberal Democrat No - lost to Liberal Democrat
Kent West 16,311 Labour No - lost to Labour
Norfolk 15,925 Labour No - lost to Labour
Essex South 12,753 Labour No - lost to Labour
Northamptonshire & Blaby 12,362 Labour No - lost to Labour
Bedfordshire & Milton Keynes 11,127 Labour No - lost to Labour
London South East 10,694 Labour No - lost to Labour
London North West 7,400 Labour No - lost to Labour
Leicester 4,057 Labour No - lost to Labour
Lancashire Central 2,068 Labour No - lost to Labour

Scottish National Party (1 seat)

Constituency Majority Runner-up Held in 1994?
Highlands & Islands 44,695 Conservative Yes

Tuesday, 20 October 2015

The Last Sunday After Pentecost - Where The Alternative Service Book Got It Right

Those who follow the Book of Common Prayer and/or Common Worship lectionaries will be aware that last Sunday was the 20th Sunday after Trinity.

If - like me - you became a Christian from a non-churchgoing background in the late 1980s or early 1990s and attended a Church of England church, then your first liturgical encounter would be with the Alternative Service Book. It would be confusing to hear older people reminisce about Series 1, Series 2, Series 3 and Series 2 & 3 Combined.

A key part of any service book is its calendar. The Church calendar plays a role in helping us remember parts of Jesus's life, death and resurrection, and the actions of God in His story of redemption - not just the familiar Easter and Christmas Day, but the Epiphany (6 January), Transfiguration (6 August), Ascension Day etc.

One of the ways that I feel Common Worship has improved on the Book of Common Prayer is its handling of November. In the BCP, you had Advent Sunday, which would be between 27 November and 3 December inclusive, with the Last Sunday after Trinity being the Sunday before that (i.e. between 20 and 26 November inclusive).

November is a heavy month. The nights draw in, frosts appear, deciduous trees are bare, flowers die. There is this element of death and decay - and that month sees All Saints' Day (1 November) and All Souls' Day (2 November), as well as Remembrance Sunday (which, for obvious reasons, the Reformers would not have known about).

Common Worship draws this together into its own little liturgical season, starting with All Saints' Sunday, 4 weeks before Advent - hence between 30 October and 5 November inclusive. This means that its Last Sunday after Trinity is 4 weeks before the one in the BCP (so will be between 23 and 29 October inclusive). Before we get into the rush of Christmas and our celebrating of the birth of Jesus, we reflect on our own mortality.

Under the ASB calendar, Common Worship's Last Sunday after Trinity would be 9 Before Christmas, as the Church of England bought into the secular idea that Christmas needed a nice long period of preparation.

And so the Sunday between 16 and 22 October inclusive (i.e. last Sunday) would be on the calendar as the Last Sunday after....

No, not Trinity.

Trinity Sunday can be as early as 17 May or as late as 20 June. There is that long period in the church calendar where Sundays are named after how many weeks they are after it.

The Alternative Service Book used a different starting point - the Sunday before Trinity, which is Whit Sunday (in the BCP) and Pentecost (in Common Worship). This celebrates the day that the Holy Spirit came upon the Apostles and the others in the upper room, empowering them to bring the Christian Gospel across the known world.

The nth Sunday after Pentecost is the (n-1)th Sunday after Trinity.

This seems, to me, to be the better starting point. The Church's mission, and our individual lives, rely on the empowering of the Holy Spirit. Naming our Sundays after Pentecost puts the focus, correctly, on this.

The Crossbench Senate - A Consequence Of The Canadian Election

It is now clear that Canada's Liberals have gone from a poor third place to win yesterday's election - which is an amazing turn around, given that at the previous election, in May 2011, the New Democrats had replaced them as the Official Opposition.

What might be overlooked is the Senate, which has an upper size of 105 members. There are currently a rather large number of vacancies - 22 in all, just over one-fifth of the Senate. And this now gives the incoming Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, a golden opportunity.

A couple of years back, I noted that former Prime Minister Tony Blair was a bit of a genius by appointing loads of Blairite Labour peers, who would carry the flame for decades after he had left office. The situation in Canada is similar, as a Prime Minister can appoint his or her own people to the Senate.

There are a couple of restrictions:

  1. Not only is there a maximum size of 105 - preventing the almost unlimited appointments that a British Prime Minister could do - but Canada's federal structure sets the number of Senators per province/territory, with Québec and Ontario being entitled to 24, while the Northwest Territories, Nunavut and Yukon are entitled to 1 each
  2. Senators have to retire by their 75th birthday

One fundamental difference with the House of Lords is that a Canadian Prime Minister tends to make appointments from his own party, rather than the British-style inviting the Leader of the Opposition and leader(s) of major minor parties to nominate. The other fundamental difference is that there is no real equivalent of the Crossbench peers who are a key part of the House of Lords.

The current composition is:

  • Conservative - 47
  • Independent-ish Liberal - 29
  • Independent - 6
  • Progressive Conservative - 1
  • vacant - 22

As with anything political, it is more complicated, and the non-Conservative Senators need to be explained in more detail.

The Progressive Conservatives were an old party, similar to the Conservative party we know in the United Kingdom. The October 1993 election was a disaster for them, being reduced to fifth-party status with just 2 MPs, and the Prime Minister, Kim Campbell, losing Vancouver Centre to the Liberals.

Something had happened a few years earlier which had been a factor in their decline. In November 1988, John Dahner, the Progressive Conservative MP for Alberta's Beaver River, died from cancer. March 1989 saw a by-election, with Deborah Gray becoming the Reform Party's first MP.

The November 1988 election had been the last of the traditional 3-party (Progressive Conservative, Liberal, New Democrats) ones, with the Reform Party coming a poor fourth, with just over 2% of the vote and no MPs.

In 1993, newcomers Bloc Québécois won 54 of Québec's 75 seats and became Canada's Official Opposition. Second in terms of votes - but with only 52 seats - was the Reform Party, eclipsing the Progressive Conservatives as the voice of the centre-right. The next election, June 1997, saw the Reform Party overtake Bloc Québécois in terms of seats, so its leader, Preston Manning, became Leader of the Opposition. The Progressive Conservatives increased to 20 MPs, but remained in fifth place.

The Reform Party's seats were all in western provinces - Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. In all of these (apart from Manitoba, where the Liberals topped the poll), it was the largest party in terms of votes and seats. Apart from an MP from Manitoba, the Progressive Conservatives were winning seats in provinces where the Reform Party was failing to win any - Newfoundland (now Newfoundland & Labrador), New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario and Québec. Indeed, in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia (where it was the New Democrats who won a majority of the province's seats), the Progressive Conservatives came first in terms of number of votes.

November 2000 saw another election with the Canadian Alliance - the successor to the Reform Party - again forming the Official Opposition, and the Progressive Conservatives remaining in fifth place. Although the Alliance picked up a couple of seats in Ontario - where the Progressive Conservatives lost their sole seat - they were again winning seats in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, failing to make real inroads anywhere else.

In December 2003, the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives mostly merged to form the Conservatives.

However, not taking part in the merger were a few politician, including Elaine McCoy of Alberta, who would go on to be appointed to the Senate in March 2005. When she reaches retirement in March 2021, that will be the end of the Progressive Conservatives as a parliamentary party.

There are 6 Independents - Pierre-Hugues Boisvenu (Québec), Patrick Brazeau (Québec), Anne Cools (Ontario), Michael Duffy (Prince Edward Island), Don Meredith (Ontario) and Pamela Wallin (Saskatchewan).

Brazeau, Duffy and Wallin were all initially Conservatives, who subsequently resigned the Conservative whip, followed by suspension for breaking rules. The suspensions only last until the election, so all 3 will be able to take their seats again when the Senate next meets. Whether the Conservatives let them re-join is another matter.

Boisvenu, Cools and Meredith are also ex-Conservatives (although Cools, currently the longest-serving Senator, was initially appointed to the Senate by Trudeau's father as a Liberal).

The current law sets election day to be the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election - hence the next election should be 21 October 2019. And, under the retirement rules, there will be other vacancies to be filled by the time this new Parliament is dissolved:

Retirement Senator Province Party
February 2016 Irving Gerstein Ontario Conservative
April 2016 Céline Hervieux-Payette Québec Independent Liberal
May 2016 David Smith Ontario Independent Liberal
August 2016 Michel Rivard Québec Conservative
January 2017 Jim Cowan Nova Scotia Independent Liberal
Wilfred Moore Nova Scotia Independent Liberal
Nancy Ruth Ontario Conservative
May 2017 Maria Chaput Manitoba Independent Liberal
August 2017 Bob Runciman Ontario Conservative
September 2017 George Baker Newfoundland & Labrador Independent Liberal
Libbe Hubley Prince Edward Island Independent Liberal
November 2017 Kelvin Ogilvie Nova Scotia Conservative
April 2018 Pana Merchant Saskatchewan Independent Liberal
May 2018 Nancy Raine British Columbia Conservative
August 2018 Anne Cools Ontario Independent
Betty Unger Alberta Conservative
September 2018 Art Eggleton Ontario Independent Liberal
November 2018 Nick Sibbeston Northwest Territories Independent Liberal
December 2018 Colin Kenny Ontario Independent Liberal
April 2019 Ghislain Maltais Québec Conservative
June 2019 Charlie Watt Québec Independent Liberal

So, from the maths it looks like Trudeau can have 22 Senators appointed in the very near future, and adding those to the 29 Independent Liberals gives him 51 Senators - just 2 short of an absolute majority when the Senate is at full capacity. In addition, during the course of this Parliament, he will be able to replace 8 Conservatives and 1 Independent with Liberals - bringing him to 60 Senators.

The Independent Liberals - I didn't get round to them, did I? In January 2014, Trudeau had all Liberal Senators removed from the Liberal caucus. According to him:

The Senate is broken and needs to be fixed. If the Senate serves a purpose at all, it is to act as a check on the extraordinary power of the prime minister and his office, especially in a majority government. The party structure in the Senate interferes with this responsibility. Taken together with patronage (appointments), partisanship within the Senate is a powerful, negative force. It reinforces the prime minister's power instead of checking it.

The article states:

If elected prime minister, Trudeau said he'd go further. He'd appoint only independent senators after employing an open, transparent process, with public input, for nominating worthy candidates — much the way recipients of the Order of Canada are chosen.

It sounds like Trudeau is looking at something like the House of Lords Appointments Commission, with its function in recommending crossbench peers.

If Trudeau is going down this route, then the Senate at the time this Parliament is dissolved will look something like this:

  • Crossbench - 43
  • Conservative - 39
  • Independent Liberal - 17
  • Independent [ex-Conservative] - 5
  • Progressive Conservative - 1

Tuesday, 6 October 2015

If David Cameron Resigns In 2019, What Is The Best Time?

There was an interesting article by James Forsyth in The Spectator, suggesting that Prime Minister David Cameron will resign in 2019:

Mr Cameron has chosen a date for his departure: his closest allies in Downing Street have been told that he intends to announce he’s leaving in the spring of 2019. The Tory leadership race would then take place over the summer, with the new leader introducing themself to the country at the party conference that autumn.

Out of post-war Prime Ministers, Cameron has already served longer than Winston Churchill (considering solely his post-war premiership), Anthony Eden, Alec Douglas-Home, Ted Heath, Jim Callaghan and Gordon Brown. He overtakes:

  • Clement Attlee on 11 August 2016
  • John Major on 14 October 2016
  • Harold Macmillan on 16 February 2017
  • Harold Wilson on 14 February 2018
  • Tony Blair on 6 July 2020
  • Margaret Thatcher on 6 December 2021

A Conservative leadership race over the summer of 2019, with the new leader making his or her first appearance at the October conference, sounds intriguing. But there are a couple of problems with timing.

A modern-style leadership race takes about 2 months, so this is time taken out while a party should be preparing for the next election - due on Thursday, 7 May 2020. If we look at how far in to a Parliament a Prime Minister has resigned (for whatever reason) we have:

General election Change of leader Outgoing leader Incoming leader Time from election
October 1951 April 1955 Churchill Eden 3y 5m
May 1955 January 1957 Eden Macmillan 1y 7m
October 1959 October 1963 Macmillan Douglas-Hone 4y 0m
February 1974 April 1976 Wilson Callaghan 2y 1m
June 1987 November 1990 Thatcher Major 3y 5m
May 2005 June 2007 Blair Brown 2y 2m

The only example of a change of Prime Minister in the fifth year of a Parliament didn't work out well, but the two fourth-year changes did lead to the party winning the following general election. Interestingly, these were around the same point of a Parliament, and - if the change were at a similar point - then a new leader would present himself or herself at the 2018 conference. At this point, Cameron would have become the third longest-serving post-war Prime Minister.

It is possible that the Conservatives will enter Opposition after the next election, and - if Labour wins decisively - the removal vans could be at 10 Downing Street by lunchtime on Friday, 8 May. Now consider the scenario of a new leader being unveiled and taking office at the 2019 Conference, which we can reasonably assume will be in October. If the new leader takes office on or after 11 October 2019, then he or she runs a real risk of having a shorter premiership than Bonar Law's. So, I think we can rule out a leadership change that late in 2019 - and remember this would involve the starting gun being fired in July or August.

If the 2014 pattern is followed, then the European elections will be on Thursday, 23 May 2019. The 2014 election saw the Conservatives come third, on 23.93% of the vote - their worst result ever in a national election. Unless the Conservatives are very unlucky, then there will be a dead cat bounce, and Cameron can say that he increased the party vote. With general elections now being on a 5-year cycle, the European elections are the last major test of party support.

Cameron could announce his resignation following the European elections, leaving on an electoral upswing, and a new Prime Minister being chosen in August, ready to face the House of Commons when the summer recess is over.

Alongside the European elections, there would also be the local elections, and - due to these being on a 4-year cycle - those elected alongside the May 2015 general election will face re-election.

The European and local elections will be the major elections of 2019, and it would not do for the Conservatives to be in the middle of a leadership contest (although in 1994, Labour - by tragedy, not by choice - had to fight the local and European elections while its leadership contest was happening). Again, if we assume that a contest, from start to finish, is 2 months, then this would mean Cameron announcing in March (around the Budget?) at the latest that he would be going and setting the contest in process.

In 1955, Eden decided to cut-and-run, with Parliament dissolved exactly a month after he took office. Major decided to take the opposite approach, and nearly finished the complete term that Thatcher had led the Conservatives to. An incoming Prime Minister wanting the same (or larger) gap between taking office and fighting his or her first election as Prime Minister - with enough time to establish a distinct style - would need to take office by 27 December 2018.

Looking at the dates, I think that Cameron will either step down in 2018 or be leading the Conservatives into the 2020 election.