Monday, 8 February 2016

The 1989 European Election Results On The 1994 Boundaries

At 4 elections - June 1979, June 1984, June 1989 and June 1984 - Great Britain elected our Members of the European Parliament using Single Member Plurality (often called First Past The Post). The way that the Parliament has changed in size can be seen in the table below:

Election MEPs Nations
United Kingdom In total
June 1979 81 410 9
June 1984 81 434 10
June 1989 81 518 12
June 1994 87 567 12
June 1999 87 626 15
June 2004 78 732 25
June 2009 72 736 27
May 2014 73 751 28

Until 1994, the number of MEPs that "The Nine" (Belgium, Denmark, France, Federal Republic of Germany, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, United Kingdom) had remained constant, and the four largest nations (France, Germany, Italy, UK) each had 81 MEPs. The expansion in the Parliament's size was Greece being given 24 MEPs when it joined in January 1981, and Portugal and Spain being given 24 and 60 MEPs respectively when they joined in January 1986.

By 1994 there had been two major changes. Firstly, the old German Democratic Republic had been absorbed into the Federal Republic in October 1990, and as a consequence, the parity in seats for the four largest nations ended. Germany received an additional 18 seats (bringing it up to 99), while France, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom each received an extra 6 seats, Span received an extra 4, with Belgium, Greece and Portugal (all of whom had had 24 MEPs) received an extra seat each - creating an extra 49 seats. The second big change was the Treaty of Maastricht coming into force in November 1993, replacing the European Communities with the European Union, and giving the Parliament more powers.

January 1995 saw Austria (21 MEPs), Finland (16 MEPs) and Sweden (22 MEPs) join, pushing the Parliament up to 626 seats.

The Treaty of Nice came into force in February 2003, setting an upper limit of 732 MEPs (which could be breached, temporarily, if new countries joined between elections).

In May 2004 there was a major expansion of the EU, with Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia joining, bringing the EU to 25 member nations. The Parliament elected the following month saw many countries have a reduction in MEPs in order to keep the Nice cap.

In January 2007 Bulgaria (18 MEPs) and Romania (35 MEPs) joined the EU, brinng the Parliament up to 785 MEPs. As this was mid-term, breaching the Nice cap was not an issue, but the size of the Parliament was reduced by 49 members for the 2009 election. Croatia - with 12 MEPs - joined in July 2013, bringing the Parliament up to 748.

The Treaty of Lisbon came into force in December 2009, which set the size of the Parliament at 750 members from the 2014 election, with each nation being entitled to a minimum of 6 and a maximum of 96 seats. Historically, France, Italy and the United Kingdom had the same number of seats, but this Treaty put France on 74, the United Kingdom on 73 and Italy on 72. To ensure Italy was treated equally as the United Kingdom, the size was increased to 751 members.

The June 1989 European election had given the result:

  • Labour - 45
  • Conservative - 32
  • Scottish National Party - 1
  • Democratic Unionist Party - 1
  • Social Democratic & Labour Party - 1
  • Ulster Unionist Party - 1

The 1989 election was controversial as the Greens obtained their best ever result - 14.42% of the vote - but won no seats. This was the first election I was really aware of, as - although I was too young to vote - most of the students at my sixth-form college were able to. Our European constituency - Dorset East & West Hampshire - was one where the Greens came second.

Labour's 38.72% was their best result in a national election since the October 1974 general election, and ended up being their highest share of the vote under Neil Kinnock's leadership (the April 1992 general election saw their share of the vote fall from 1989). The Conservatives' 33.54% was their worst result in a national election since the April/May 1859 general election.

The 1989 election was also the last national election with Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister.

The following 26 seats were unchanged:

  • Birmingham East
  • Birmingham West
  • Durham
  • Fife & Mid Scotland
  • Glasgow
  • Highlands & Islands
  • Leeds
  • London Central
  • London East
  • London North
  • London North East
  • London North West
  • London West
  • Lothians
  • Merseyside East (renamed Merseyside East & Wigan)
  • Merseyside West
  • Midlands West
  • Northern Ireland (3-member constituency)
  • Northumbria
  • Scotland North East
  • Scotland South
  • Strathclyde East
  • Strathclyde West
  • Thames Valley
  • Tyne & Wear
  • Yorkshire South

Next we can look at how the 1984/1989 constituencies were split up for 1994:

Constituency Percentage New constituency
Bedfordshire South 56.81% Bedfordshire & Milton Keynes
29.94% Hertfordshire
13.25% Essex West & East Hertfordshire
Bristol 75.11% Bristol
24.89% Wiltshire North & Bath
Cambridge & North Bedfordshire 72.66% Cambridgeshire
27.34% Bedfordshire & Milton Keynes
Cheshire East 57.96% Cheshire East
14.31% Peak District
14.30% Cheshire West & Wirral
13.44% Staffordshire West & Congleton
Cheshire West 86.05% Cheshire West & Wirral
13.95% Cheshire East
Cleveland & North Yorkshire 86.80% Cleveland & Richmond
13.20% North Yorkshire
Cornwall & Plymouth 87.77% Cornwall & West Plymouth
12.23% Devon & East Plymouth
Cotswolds 72.61% Cotswolds
14.67% Worcestershire & South Warwickshire
12.73% Buckinghamshire & East Oxfordshire
Cumbria & North Lancashire 89.27% Cumbria & North Lancashire
10.73% Lancashire Central
Derbyshire 63.62% Peak District
24.63% Staffordshire East & Derby
11.75% Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield
Devon 75.43% Devon & East Plymouth
13.14% Dorset & East Devon
11.44% Somerset & North Devon
Dorset East & West Hampshire 62.44% Dorset & East Devon
37.56% Itchen, Test & Avon
Essex North East 67.30% Essex North & South Suffolk
32.70% Essex South
Essex South West 50.28% Essex West & East Hertfordshire
49.72% Essex South
Greater Manchester Central 61.58% Greater Manchester Central
25.23% Cheshire East
13.20% Greater Manchester West
Greater Manchester East 62.24% Greater Manchester East
37.76% Greater Manchester Central
Greater Manchester West 86.65% Greater Manchester West
13.35% Lancashire South
Hampshire Central 42.92% Hampshire North & Oxford
42.74% Itchen, Test & Avon
14.34% Wight & South Hampshire
Hereford & Worcester 51.27% Worcestershire & South Warwickshire
35.48% Hereford & Shropshire
13.25% Cotswolds
Hertfordshire 70.73% Hertfordshire
29.27% Essex West & East Hertfordshire
Humberside 70.61% Humberside
29.39% Lincolnshire & South Humberside
Kent East 87.22% Kent East
12.78% Kent West
Kent West 74.34% Kent West
25.66% East Sussex & South Kent
Lancashire Central 56.83% Lancashire Central
43.17% Lancashire South
Lancashire East 39.08% Lancashire South
35.99% Greater Manchester East
24.93% Lancashire Central
Leicester 61.56% Leicester
24.59% Coventry & North Warwickshire
13.86% Nottingham & North West Leicestershire
Lincolnshire 64.28% Lincolnshire & South Humberside
23.09% Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield
12.63% Leicester
London South & East Surrey 85.61% London South & East Surrey
14.39% Surrey
London South East 91.31% London South East
8.69% London South Inner
London South Inner 89.01% London South Inner
10.99% London South West
London South West 85.97% London South West
14.03% London South & East Surrey
Midlands Central 71.94% Coventry & North Warwickshire
28.06% Worcestershire & South Warwickshire
Norfolk 86.75% Norfolk
13.25% Suffolk & South West Norfolk
Northamptonshire 87.09% Northamptonshire & Blaby
12.91% Leicester
Nottingham 62.48% Nottingham & North West Leicestershire
24.66% Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield
12.85% Peak District
Oxford & Buckinghamshire 75.14% Buckinghamshire & East Oxfordshire
24.86% Hampshire North & Oxford
Sheffield 74.20% Sheffield
25.80% Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield
Shropshire & Stafford 51.36% Hereford & Shropshire
36.74% Staffordshire West & Congleton
11.89% Staffordshire East & Derby
Somerset & West Dorset 75.35% Somerset & North Devon
13.20% Bristol
11.45% Dorset & East Devon
Staffordshire East 51.68% Staffordshire East & Derby
35.93% Staffordshire West & Congleton
12.39% Nottingham & North West Leicestershire
Suffolk 70.63% Suffolk & South West Norfolk
15.25% Essex North & South Suffolk
14.13% Cambridgeshire
Surrey West 85.83% Surrey
14.17% South Downs West
Sussex East 66.46% East Sussex & South Kent
33.54% Sussex South & Crawley
Sussex West 55.63% Sussex South & Crawley
44.37% South Downs West
Wales Mid & West 58.28% Wales Mid & West
41.72% Wales South West
Wales North 86.46% Wales North
13.54% Wales Mid & West
Wales South 69.11% Wales South Central
30.89% Wales South West
Wales South East 80.63% Wales South East
19.37% Wales South Central
Wight & East Hampshire 70.88% Wight & South Hampshire
29.12% South Downs West
Wiltshire 61.14% Wiltshire North & Bath
25.72% Hampshire North & Oxford
13.14% Itchen, Test & Avon
York 71.87% North Yorkshire
28.13% Humberside
Yorkshire South West 88.08% Yorkshire South West
11.92% Sheffield
Yorkshire West 86.51% Yorkshire West
13.49% Yorkshire South West

We can now identify the 1984-1994 constituencies with their successors (if any) and will also look at which MEPs were seeking re-election in 1994:

Constituency MEP Standing for re-election? Successor constituency
Bedfordshire South Peter Beazley No Bedfordshire & Milton Keynes
Birmingham East Christine Crawley Yes Birmingham East
Birmingham West John Tomlinson Yes Birmingham West
Bristol Ian White Yes Bristol
Cambridge & North Bedfordshire Fred Catherwood No Cambridgeshire
Cheshire East Brian Simpson Yes Cheshire East
Cheshire West Lyndon Harrison Yes Cheshire West & Wirral
Cleveland & North Yorkshire David Bowe Yes Cleveland & Richmond
Cornwall & Plymouth Christopher Beazley Yes Cornwall & West Plymouth
Cotswolds Henry Plumb Yes Cotswolds
Cumbria & North Lancashire Richard Fletcher-Vane [a] Yes Cumbria & North Lancashire
Derbyshire Geoff Hoon [b] No Peak District
Devon Charles Strachey [c] Resigned seat May 1994 Devon & East Plymouth
Dorset East & West Hampshire Bryan Cassidy Yes Dorset & East Devon
Durham Stephen Hughes Yes Durham
Essex North East Anne McIntosh Yes Essex North & South Suffolk
Essex South West Patricia Rawlings Yes Essex West & East Hertfordshire
Fife & Mid Scotland Alex Falconer Yes Fife & Mid Scotland
Glasgow Janey Buchan No Glasgow
Greater Manchester Central Eddie Newman Yes Greater Manchester Central
Greater Manchester East Glyn Ford Yes Greater Manchester East
Greater Manchester West Gary Titley Yes Greater Manchester West
Hampshire Central Edward Kellett-Bowman Yes Hampshire North & Oxford
Hereford & Worcester James Scott-Hopkins No Worcestershire & South Warwickshire
Hertfordshire Derek Prag No Hertfordshire
Highlands & Islands Winnie Ewing Yes Highlands & Islands
Humberside Peter Crampton Yes Humberside
Kent East Christopher Jackson Yes Kent East
Kent West Ben Patterson Yes Kent East
Lancashire Central Michael Welsh Yes Lancashire Central
Lancashire East Michael Hindley Yes None [d]
Leeds Michael McGowan Yes Leeds
Leicester Mel Read Yes Leicester
Lincolnshire Bill Newton-Dunn Yes Lincolnshire & South Humberside
London Central Stan Newens Yes London Central
London East Carole Tongue Yes London East
London North Pauline Green Yes London North
London North East Alf Lomas Yes London North East
London North West Nicholas Bethell [e] Yes London North West
London South & East Surrey James Moorhouse Yes London South & East Surrey
London South East Peter Price Yes London South East
London South Inner Richard Balfe Yes London South Inner
London South West Anita Pollack Yes London South West
London West Michael Elliott Yes London West
Lothians David Martin Yes Lothians
Merseyside East Terry Wynn Yes Merseyside East & Wigan
Merseyside West Kenneth Stewart Yes Merseyside West
Midlands Central Christine Oddy Yes Coventry & North Warwickshire
Midlands West John Bird No Midlands West
Norfolk Paul Howell Yes Norfolk
Northamptonshire Anthony Simpson Yes Northamptonshire & Blaby
Northumbria Gordon Adam Yes Northumbria
Nottingham Ken Coates Yes Nottingham & North West Leicestershire
Oxford & Buckinghamshire James Elles Yes Buckinghamshire & East Oxfordshire
Scotland North East Henry McCubbin Yes Scotland North East
Scotland South Alex Smith Yes Scotland South
Sheffield Roger Barton Yes Sheffield
Shropshire & Stafford Christopher Prout Yes Hereford & Shropshire
Somerset & West Dorset Margaret Daly Yes Somerset & North Devon
Staffordshire East George Stevenson [f] No Staffordshire East & Derby
Strathclyde East Ken Collins Yes Strathclyde East
Strathclyde West Hugh McMahon Yes Strathclyde West
Suffolk Amédée Turner Yes Suffolk & South West Norfolk
Surrey West Tom Spencer Yes Surrey
Sussex East Jack Stewart-Clark Yes East Sussex & South Kent
Sussex West Madron Seligman No Sussex South & Crawley
Thames Valley John Stevens Yes Thames Valley
Tyne & Wear Alan Donnelly Yes Tyne & Wear
Wales Mid & West David Morris Yes Wales Mid & West
Wales North Joe Wilson Yes Wales North
Wales South Wayne David Yes Wales South Central
Wales South East Llew Smith [g] No Wales South East
Wight & East Hampshire Richard Simmonds No Wight & South Hampshire
Wiltshire Caroline Jackson Yes Wiltshire North & Bath
York Edward McMillan-Scott Yes North Yorkshire
Yorkshire South Norman West Yes Yorkshire South
Yorkshire South West Tom Megahy Yes Yorkshire South West
Yorkshire West Barry Seal Yes Yorkshire West
None Essex South
None Itchen, Test & Avon
None Lancashire South
None Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield
None South Downs West
None Staffordshire West & Congleton
None Wales South West

[a] Fletcher-Vane became the 2nd Lord Inglewood a week after the 1989 election.

[b] Hoon was elected Labour MP for Ashfield (which lay within his European constituency) at the 1992 general election.

[c] Strachey was a member of the House of Lords as the 4th Lord O'Hagan.

[d] While it might appear that Lancashire South is the natural successor to Lancashire East, it picked up more voters from Lancashire Central than from Lancashire East.

[e] Bethell was also a member of the House of Lords as the 4th Lord Bethell.

[f] Stevenson was elected Labour MP for Stoke-on-Trent South (which lay within his European constituency) at the 1992 general election.

[g] Smith was elected Labour MP for Blaenau Gwent (which lay within his European constituency) at the 1992 general election.

Note that not every MEP seeking re-election stood in their successor seat:

MEP Successor seat Stood in
Ken Coates Nottingham & North West Leicestershire Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield
Michael Hindley None Lancashire South
Edward Kellett-Bowman Hampshire North & Oxford Itchen, Test & Avon
David Morris Wales Mid & West Wales South West
Mel Read Leicester Nottingham & North West Leicestershire

We can now look at the partisan effects of the new constituencies:

Party Seats Changing hands due to boundary changes Abolished seats Created seats Notional seats
Gained Lost
Labour 45 1 1 1 4 48
Conservative 32 1 1 0 3 35
Scottish National Party 1 0 0 0 0 1
Democratic Unionist Party 1 0 0 0 0 1
Social Democratic & Labour Party 1 0 0 0 0 1
Ulster Unionist Party 1 0 0 0 0 1

The notional results are:

Labour (48 seats)

Constituency Majority Runner-up Held in 1994?
Tyne & Wear 95,780 Conservative Yes
Yorkshire South 91,784 Conservative Yes
Durham 86,848 Conservative Yes
Wales South East 79,195 Conservative Yes
Merseyside East & Wigan 76,867 Conservative Yes
Wales South West 69,762 Conservative Yes
Sheffield 65,558 Conservative Yes
Yorkshire South West 61,293 Conservative Yes
Strathclyde East 60,317 Scottish National Party Yes
Northumbria 60,040 Conservative Yes
Glasgow 59,232 Scottish National Party Yes
Greater Manchester East 58,959 Conservative Yes
Wales South Central 57,554 Conservative Yes
Fife & Mid Scotland 52,157 Scottish National Party Yes
Merseyside West 49,817 Conservative Yes
Greater Manchester West 49,400 Conservative Yes
London North East 47,767 Conservative Yes
Birmingham East 46,948 Conservative Yes
Nottinghamshire North & Chesterfield 46,772 Conservative Yes
Leeds 42,518 Conservative Yes
Midlands West 42,364 Conservative Yes
London South Inner 42,186 Conservative Yes
Strathclyde West 39,591 Scottish National Party Yes
Lothians 38,826 Conservative Yes
Cleveland & Richmond 33,643 Conservative Yes
Yorkshire West 32,070 Conservative Yes
Birmingham West 30,860 Conservative Yes
London East 27,385 Conservative Yes
Greater Manchester Central 27,284 Conservative Yes
Staffordshire West & Congleton 20,090 Conservative Yes
Coventry & North Warwickshire 20,002 Conservative Yes
Lancashire South 19,856 Conservative Yes
Staffordshire East & Derby 18,461 Conservative Yes
Cheshire West & Wirral 16,858 Conservative Yes
Cheshire East 16,805 Conservative Yes
Scotland South 15,693 Conservative Yes
London West 14,808 Conservative Yes
London Central 11,542 Conservative Yes
Wales Mid & West 11,527 Conservative Yes
London South West 10,723 Conservative Yes
Wales North 9,378 Conservative Yes
Bristol 7,715 Conservative Yes
London North 5,837 Conservative Yes
Nottingham & North West Leicestershire 4,966 Conservative Yes
Humberside 4,389 Conservative Yes
Peak District 3,651 Conservative Yes
Scotland North East 2,613 Scottish National Party No - lost to Scottish National Party
Cumbria & North Lancashire 1,610 Conservative Yes

Conservative (35 seats)

Constituency Majority Runner-up Held in 1994?
Dorset & East Devon 51,621 Green Yes
Devon & East Plymouth 49,889 Green Yes
Buckinghamshire & East Oxfordshire 49,596 Green Yes
North Yorkshire 45,176 Green Yes
South Downs West 44,913 Green Yes
East Sussex & South Kent 42,656 Green Yes
Somerset & North Devon 42,206 Green No - lost to Liberal Democrat
Surrey 42,112 Green Yes
Itchen, Test & Avon 39,047 Labour Yes
Hampshire North & Oxford 36,794 Labour Yes
Sussex South & Crawley 36,499 Labour Yes
Wight & South Hampshire 33,315 Labour Yes
London South & East Surrey 32,100 Labour Yes
Essex West & East Hertfordshire 30,012 Labour No - lost to Labour
Cambridgeshire 29,878 Labour Yes
Cotswolds 29,760 Labour Yes
Hertfordshire 29,462 Labour No - lost to Labour
Essex North & South Suffolk 27,048 Labour Yes
Wiltshire North & Bath 26,912 Labour Yes
Worcestershire & South Warwickshire 26,635 Labour Yes
Thames Valley 26,491 Labour Yes
Kent East 23,108 Labour No - lost to Labour
Hereford & Shropshire 22,967 Labour No - lost to Labour
Lincolnshire & South Humberside 17,976 Labour No - lost to Labour
Suffolk & South West Norfolk 17,905 Labour No - lost to Labour
Cornwall & West Plymouth 16,746 Liberal Democrat No - lost to Liberal Democrat
Kent West 16,311 Labour No - lost to Labour
Norfolk 15,925 Labour No - lost to Labour
Essex South 12,753 Labour No - lost to Labour
Northamptonshire & Blaby 12,362 Labour No - lost to Labour
Bedfordshire & Milton Keynes 11,127 Labour No - lost to Labour
London South East 10,694 Labour No - lost to Labour
London North West 7,400 Labour No - lost to Labour
Leicester 4,057 Labour No - lost to Labour
Lancashire Central 2,068 Labour No - lost to Labour

Scottish National Party (1 seat)

Constituency Majority Runner-up Held in 1994?
Highlands & Islands 44,695 Conservative Yes

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