The 2007 Scottish Election on Westminster Constituencies

In a previous post I had a look at projecting the May 2011 Scottish Parliament elections onto the constituencies for the House of Commons, and now I turn my attention to the May 2007 ones.

2007 is an interesting comparison with the May 2010 general election, as both happen in similar circumstances. Nationally Labour was becoming unpopular, but while in England (and to some extent in Wales) voters turned to the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, Scottish voters had a third option - namely the Scottish National Party.

I arrived in Edinburgh on election day - the following Saturday the British Astronomical Association's Variable Star Section was holding a meeting there - and on the Friday stood on the hill near Holyrood seeing all the TV crews there to record the day that Labour loses Scotland. I recall saying later that you could almost smell it in the air, that something big politically was happening.

An overview of the shift from the May 2005 general election:

• The Scottish National Party gains 8 seats from Labour and 3 from the Liberal Democrats - a gain of 11 seats, bringing their tally from 6 to 17.
• The Conservatives gain 3 seats from Labour and 1 from the Liberal Democrats - a gain of 4 seats, bringing their tally from 1 to 5.
• The Speaker loses 1 seat to Labour.
• Labour gains 1 seat from the Speaker and 1 from the Liberal Democrats, while losing 2 to the Liberal Democrats, 3 to the Conservatives and 8 to the Scottish National Party - a net loss of 11 seats, bringing their tally from 40 to 29.
• The Liberal Democrats gain 2 seats from Labour, while losing 1 seat to the Conservatives, 1 to Labour and 3 to the Scottish National Party - a net loss of 3 seats, reducing their tally from 11 to 8.

The seats won by Labour would be:

• Glasgow North East - majority of 25.64% over the Scottish National Party (Gain from the Speaker)
• Motherwell & Wishaw - majority of 22.41% over the Scottish National Party
• Glasgow East - majority of 21.98% over the Scottish National Party
• Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill - majority of 19.97% over the Scottish National Party
• Glasgow South West - majority of 17.95% over the Scottish National Party
• Inverclyde - majority of 16.26% over the Scottish National Party
• Glasgow North West - majority of 15.66% over the Scottish National Party
• Rutherglen & Hamilton West - majority of 15.51% over the Scottish National Party
• Paisley & Renfrewshire South - majority of 14.72% over the Scottish National Party
• Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath - majority of 13.51% over the Scottish National Party
• Paisley & Renfrewshire North - majority of 11.72% over the Scottish National Party
• Glasgow Central - majority of 11.36% over the Scottish National Party
• Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East - majority of 9.29% over the Scottish National Party
• Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock - majority of 8.64% over the Conservatives
• Dubartonshire West - majority of 8.09% over the Scottish National Party
• Glasgow North - majority of 7.30% over the Scottish National Party
• East Lothian - majority of 6.56% over the Scottish National Party
• Airdrie & Shotts - majority of 6.22% over the Scottish National Party
• Lanark & Hamilton East - majority of 6.03% over the Scottish National Party
• Glasgow South - majority of 5.45% over the Scottish National Party
• Dunfermline & West Fife - majority of 5.06% over the Liberal Democrats
• Dunbartonshire East - majority of 4.76% over the Scottish National Party (Gain from the Liberal Democrats)
• Ayrshire Central - majority of 4.59% over the Scottish National Party
• Edinburgh North & Leith - majority of 4.08% over the Liberal Democrats
• East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow - majority of 3.72% over the Scottish National Party
• Edinburgh East - majority of 2.91% over the Scottish National Party
• Ayrshire North & Arran - majority of 2.44% over the Scottish National Party
• Falkirk - majority of 2.30% over the Scottish National Party
• Livingston - majority of 0.77% over the Scottish National Party

The seats won by the Scottish National Party would be:

• Banff & Buchan - majority of 37.99% over the Conservatives
• Moray - majority of 27.40% over the Conservatives
• Dundee East - majority of 23.88% over Labour
• Angus - majority of 21.35% over the Conservatives
• Perth & North Perthshire - majority of 20.67% over the Conservatives
• Ochil & South Perthshire - majority of 13.97% over Labour (Gain from Labour)
• Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - najority of 11.09% over the Liberal Democrats (Gain from the Liberal Democrats)
• Dundee West - majority of 10.78% over Labour (Gain from Labour)
• Gordon - majority of 6.14% over the Liberal Democrats (Gain from the Liberal Democrats)
• Aberdeen North - majority of 5.58% over Labour (Gain from Labour)
• Na h-Eileanan an Iar - majority of 5.04% over Labour
• Glenrothes - majority of 2.74% over Labour (Gain from Labour)
• Argyll & Bute - majority of 2.70% over the Liberal Democrats (Gain from the Liberal Democrats)
• Linlithgow & Falkirk East - majority of 0.67% over Labour (Gain from Labour)
• Stirling - majority of 0.43% over Labour (Gain from Labour)
• Midlothian - majority of 0.26% over Labour (Gain from Labour)
• Kilmarnock & Loudoun - majority of 0.20% over Labour (Gain from Labour)

The seats won by the Liberal Democrats would be:

• Orkney & Shetland - majority of 40.03% over the Scottish National Party
• Fife North East - majority of 14.76% over the Conservatives
• Ross, Skye & Lochaber - majority of 10.19% over the Scottish National Party
• Edinburgh West - majority of 10.11% over the Scottish National Party
• Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - majority of 9.96% over the Scottish National Party
• Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine - majority of 7.93% over the Scottish National Party
• Aberdeen South - majority of 6.48% over the Scottish National Party (Gain from Labour)
• Edinburgh South - majority of 4.28% over Labour (Gain from Labour)

And finally, the seats won by the Conservatives would be:

• Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale - majority of 7.73% over Labour
• Dumfries & Galloway - majority of 7.61% over the Scottish National Party (Gain from Labour)
• Edinburgh South West - majority of 0.43% over Labour (Gain from Labour)
• Renfrewshire East - majority of 0.33% over Labour (Gain from Labour)
• Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk - majority of 0.26% over the Liberal Democrats (Gain from the Liberal Democrats)

We can now see which constituencies would have been won by different parties based on the 2007 and 2011 results:

Constituency	2007	2011
Aberdeen South	Liberal Democrat	Scottish National Party
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine	Liberal Democrat	Scottish National Party
Airdrie & Shotts	Labour	Scottish National Party
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock	Labour	Scottish National Party
Ayrshire Central	Labour	Scottish National Party
Ayrshire North & Arran	Labour	Scottish National Party
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross	Liberal Democrat	Scottish National Party
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East	Labour	Scottish National Party
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale	Conservative	Scottish National Party
Dunbartonshire East	Labour	Scottish National Party
Dunbartonshire West	Labour	Scottish National Party
Dunfermline & West Fife	Labour	Scottish National Party
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow	Labour	Scottish National Party
East Lothian	Labour	Scottish National Party
Edinburgh East	Labour	Scottish National Party
Edinburgh North & Leith	Labour	Scottish National Party
Edinburgh South	Liberal Democrat	Scottish National Party
Edinburgh South West	Conservative	Scottish National Party
Edinburgh West	Liberal Democrat	Scottish National Party
Falkirk	Labour	Scottish National Party
Fife North East	Liberal Democrat	Scottish National Party
Glasgow Central	Labour	Scottish National Party
Glasgow North	Labour	Scottish National Party
Glasgow North West	Labour	Scottish National Party
Glasgow South	Labour	Scottish National Party
Lanark & Hamilton East	Labour	Scottish National Party
Livingston	Labour	Scottish National Party
Paisley & Renfrewshire North	Labour	Scottish National Party
Renfrewshire East	Conservative	Labour
Ross, Skye & Lochaber	Liberal Democrat	Scottish National Party
Rutherglen & Hamilton West	Labour	Scottish National Party