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Monday 2 September 2013

The 2007 Scottish Election on Westminster Constituencies

In a previous post I had a look at projecting the May 2011 Scottish Parliament elections onto the constituencies for the House of Commons, and now I turn my attention to the May 2007 ones.

2007 is an interesting comparison with the May 2010 general election, as both happen in similar circumstances. Nationally Labour was becoming unpopular, but while in England (and to some extent in Wales) voters turned to the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, Scottish voters had a third option - namely the Scottish National Party.

I arrived in Edinburgh on election day - the following Saturday the British Astronomical Association's Variable Star Section was holding a meeting there - and on the Friday stood on the hill near Holyrood seeing all the TV crews there to record the day that Labour loses Scotland. I recall saying later that you could almost smell it in the air, that something big politically was happening.

An overview of the shift from the May 2005 general election:

  • The Scottish National Party gains 8 seats from Labour and 3 from the Liberal Democrats - a gain of 11 seats, bringing their tally from 6 to 17.
  • The Conservatives gain 3 seats from Labour and 1 from the Liberal Democrats - a gain of 4 seats, bringing their tally from 1 to 5.
  • The Speaker loses 1 seat to Labour.
  • Labour gains 1 seat from the Speaker and 1 from the Liberal Democrats, while losing 2 to the Liberal Democrats, 3 to the Conservatives and 8 to the Scottish National Party - a net loss of 11 seats, bringing their tally from 40 to 29.
  • The Liberal Democrats gain 2 seats from Labour, while losing 1 seat to the Conservatives, 1 to Labour and 3 to the Scottish National Party - a net loss of 3 seats, reducing their tally from 11 to 8.

The seats won by Labour would be:

The seats won by the Scottish National Party would be:

The seats won by the Liberal Democrats would be:

And finally, the seats won by the Conservatives would be:

We can now see which constituencies would have been won by different parties based on the 2007 and 2011 results:

Constituency 2007 2011
Aberdeen South Liberal Democrat Scottish National Party
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Liberal Democrat Scottish National Party
Airdrie & Shotts Labour Scottish National Party
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Labour Scottish National Party
Ayrshire Central Labour Scottish National Party
Ayrshire North & Arran Labour Scottish National Party
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Liberal Democrat Scottish National Party
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East Labour Scottish National Party
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Conservative Scottish National Party
Dunbartonshire East Labour Scottish National Party
Dunbartonshire West Labour Scottish National Party
Dunfermline & West Fife Labour Scottish National Party
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow Labour Scottish National Party
East Lothian Labour Scottish National Party
Edinburgh East Labour Scottish National Party
Edinburgh North & Leith Labour Scottish National Party
Edinburgh South Liberal Democrat Scottish National Party
Edinburgh South West Conservative Scottish National Party
Edinburgh West Liberal Democrat Scottish National Party
Falkirk Labour Scottish National Party
Fife North East Liberal Democrat Scottish National Party
Glasgow Central Labour Scottish National Party
Glasgow North Labour Scottish National Party
Glasgow North West Labour Scottish National Party
Glasgow South Labour Scottish National Party
Lanark & Hamilton East Labour Scottish National Party
Livingston Labour Scottish National Party
Paisley & Renfrewshire North Labour Scottish National Party
Renfrewshire East Conservative Labour
Ross, Skye & Lochaber Liberal Democrat Scottish National Party
Rutherglen & Hamilton West Labour Scottish National Party

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