Notional Result- Brighton Pavilion

I have been having a look at notional results and in my last post considered how they could be unreliable, and suggested one way forward, by projecting the May 2005 general election results onto the proposed constituencies for the May 2015 general election.

I touched on the issues around the proposed Brighton Pavilion

However, start by turning to the west of Brighton Pavilion, to the proposed Hove seat, which is actually the current Hove with the Brighton & Hove City Council ward of Regency picked up from the current Brighton Pavilion.

Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher drew up the notional results of the 2005 general election based on the real 2010 constituencies. For Hove they got:

Labour- 16,829

Conservatives- 16,381

Liberal Democrats- 8,077

Greens- 2,593

Others- 1,072

and for Brighton Pavilion they got:

Labour- 16,283

Conservatives- 10,416

Greens- 9,804

Liberal Democrats- 7,174

Others- 1,064

The real results for Brighton Pavilion in the May 2010 general election are:

Greens- 16,238

Labour- 14,986

Conservatives- 12,275

Liberal Democrats- 7,159

Others- 1,176

The real results for Hove in the 2010 general election were actually:

Conservatives- 18,294

Labour- 16,462

Liberal Democrats- 11,240

Greens- 2,568

Others- 1,291

The notional reults for the proposed Hove are:

Conservatives- 19,213

Labour- 17,934

Liberal Democrats- 12,024

Greens- 3,712

Others- 1,895

If we take the difference, we get:

Labour- 1,472

Greens- 1,114

Conservatives- 919

Liberal Democrats- 784

Others- 604

This is, as far as we can calculate it, how the good people of Regency voted in 2010. We then divide each party's votes by the number of votes they got across Brighton Pavilion as a whole and multiply that by the notional 2005 result calculated by Rallings & Thrasher, to work out how Regency voted in 2005:

Labour: 16,283 x (1,472 / 14,986) = 1,599

Liberal Democrats: 7,174 x (784 / 7,159) = 786

Conservatives: 10,416 x (919 / 12,275) = 780

Greens: 9,804 x (1,114 / 16,238) = 673

Others: 1,064 x (604 / 1,176) = 546

We now add those to the notional 2005 results that Rallings & Thrasher calculated:

Labour: 16,829 + 1,599 = 18,428 (37.35%)

Conservatives: 16,381 + 780 = 17,161 (34.78%)

Liberal Democrats: 8,077 + 786 = 8,863 (17.96%)

Greens: 2,593 + 673 = 3,266 (6.62%)

Others: 1,072 + 546 = 1,618 (3.29%)

So, this is the notional 2005 Hove result based on the 2015 boundaries. If the 2010 election had been fought on the 2015 boundaries, then these are the results that Labour and the Conservatives would have been using to indicate it was a 2-horse race.

The next step is to take how we have calculated the Regency ward to have voted in 2010 and subtract that from the real 2010 result for Brighton Pavilion:

Greens: 16,238 - 1,114 = 15,124

Labour: 14,986 - 1,472 = 13,514

Conservatives: 12,275 - 919 = 11,356

Liberal Democrats: 7,159 - 784 = 6,375

Others: 1,176 - 604 = 572

These figures are how that part of the current Brighton Pavilion that remains in the proposed Brighton Pavilion voted in 2010.

The motional results we have for Brighton Pavilion are:

Labour: 16,718

Greens: 15,351

Conservatives: 13,266

Liberal Democrats: 7,751

Others: 1,350

If we take the difference, we get:

Labour: 3,204

Conservatives: 1,910

Liberal Democrats: 1,376

Greens: 227

Others: 778

What's causing the difference? It's because the proposed Brighton Pavilion takes in a Brighton & Hove City Council ward - Moulsecoomb & Bevendean - from the current Brighton Kemptown. The low Green vote in that ward could mean that the voters don't give a stuff about polar bears. Or it might mean they were living in a constituency which the Greens were not focussing on as they concentrated on (successfully) getting Caroline Lucas elected as MP for Brighton Pavilion.

And if the 2010 general election had been fought on the proposed 2015 boundaries then this would be a ward that the Greens would have extensively campaigned in to get Lucas elected.

Rallings & Thrasher calculated the notional 2005 results for Brighton Kemptown to be:

Labour- 14,939

Conservatives- 13,086

Liberal Democrats- 6,482

Greens- 2,506

Others- 1,325

The real 2010 results were:

Conservatives- 16,217

Labour- 14,889

Liberal Democrats- 7,691

Greens- 2,330

Others- 1,578

As we have done before, we can take the 2010 results for Moulsecoomb & Bevendean and divide them by the 2010 results across the whole of Brighton Kemptown, and then multiply them by the notional 2005 results that Rallings & Thrasher calculated. What we then get is how the good people of Moulsecoomb & Bevendean voted at the 2005 election:

Labour: 14,939 x (3,204 / 14,889) = 3,215

Conservatives: 13,086 x (1,910 / 16,217) = 1,541

Liberal Democrats: 6,482 x (1,376 / 7,691) = 1,160

Greens: 2,506 x (227 / 2,330) = 244

Others: 1,325 x (778 / 1,578) = 653

The final step in this lengthy calculation is to take the notional 2005 results for Brighton Pavilion that Rallings & Thrasher calculated, subtract the 2005 Regency vote and add in the 2005 Moulsecoomb & Bevendean vote:

Labour: 16,283 - 1,599 + 3,215 = 17,899 (37.95%)

Conservatives: 10,416 - 780 + 1,541 = 11,177 (23.70%)

Greens: 9,804 - 673 + 244 = 9,375 (19.87%)

Liberal Democrats: 7,174 - 786 + 1,160 = 7,548 (16.00%)

Others: 1,064 - 546 + 653 = 1,171 (2.48%)

This is the notional 2005 result on the 2015 boundaries. If the 2010 general election had been fought on the 2015 boundaries then these are the results the parties would have been using as the results of the last election. And it gives the Greens a higher mountain to climb.

At thr 2010 general election, the Greens increased their share of the vote by 9.42%, the Labour vote decreased by 7.48%, the Conservative vote increased by 0.40% and the Liberal Democrat vote decreased by 2.22%. If we assume that the notional Brighton Pavilion would have seen the same shift in vote, then we get the Greens on 29.29%, but Labour winning on 30.47%.