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Monday, 28 April 2014

Cameron's Post-Election Choice - Nigel Or Angela?

I came across an interesting website called Election 2014, which is a guide to next month's elections to the European Parliament. One feature it has is a national breakdown of current opinion polling. There are currently 7 political groups in the Parliament:

There are Members of the European Parliament who do not belong to any of these groups, and these are known as non-iscrits.

To form a group, there are two threshholds to pass:

  1. One-thirtieth of the total membership (i.e. 25 MEPs) and
  2. MEPs from one-fourth of the member nations (i.e. 7 nations)

Looking at the latest poll (for 23 April) we have:

Country EPP PASD ALDE Grn/EFA ECR EUL/NGL EFD NI Total
Austria 5 5 2 2 0 0 0 4 18
Belgium 4 5 4 6 0 1 0 1 21
Bulgaria 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 3 17
Croatia 3 2 3 1 0 1 0 1 11
Cyprus 3 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 6
Czech Republic 3 6 0 0 1 5 0 6 21
Denmark 0 3 4 1 0 1 4 0 13
Estonia 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6
Finland 2 2 3 1 0 1 4 0 13
France 21 16 6 5 0 5 1 20 74
Germany 39 27 4 10 0 7 0 9 96
Greece 6 1 0 0 0 8 1 5 21
Hungary 10 5 0 1 0 0 0 5 21
Ireland 4 1 3 0 0 3 0 0 11
Italy 22 27 0 0 0 0 4 20 73
Latvia 2 1 0 0 1 2 0 2 8
Lithuania 2 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 11
Luxembourg 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 6
Malta 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
Netherlands 4 2 8 1 2 3 0 6 26
Poland 22 9 2 0 18 0 0 0 51
Portugal 8 10 0 0 0 3 0 0 21
Romania 11 13 6 0 0 0 0 2 32
Slovakia 4 6 1 0 1 0 1 0 13
Slovenia 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 8
Spain 20 17 2 4 0 6 0 5 54
Sweden 5 6 3 3 0 2 0 1 20
United Kingdom 0 26 3 5 18 1 19 1 73

We can look at the 94 non-iscrits in this list:

Country Party Predicted MEPs In current Parliament? European party
Austria Freedom Party 4 Yes European Alliance for Freedom
Belgium Flemish Interest 1 Yes European Alliance for Freedom
Bulgaria Bulgaria Without Censorship 2 No None
Alternative for Bulgarian Revival 1 No None
Croatia Alliance for Croatia* 1 No European Alliance of National Movements
None
Czech Republic Yes 2011 6 No None
France National Front 20 Yes European Alliance for Freedom
Germany Alternative for Germany 6 No None
Pirate Party 2 No None
National Democrats 1 No None
Greece The River 3 No None
Golden Dawn 2 No None
Hungary Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) 5 Yes European Alliance of National Movements
Italy Five Star Movement 20 No None
Latvia Union of Greens & Farmers 2 No European Green Party
Netherlands Party for Freedom 4 Yes European Alliance for Freedom
50 Plus 1 No None
Party for the Animals 1 No None
Romania People's Party – Dan Diaconescu 2 No None
Slovenia Slovenian National Party 2 No None
I Believe! Dr Igor Šoltes List 1 No None
Spain Union, Progress & Democracy 4 Yes None
Party of the Citizenry 1 No None
Sweden Sweden Democrats 1 No None
United Kingdom Democratic Unionist Party 1 Yes None

[* This is a collection of parties forming an electoral pact, of which the Croatian Party of Rights is - along with the British National Party - part of the European Alliance of National Movements]

Now, these would be the non-iscrits right after the election, bearing in mind that many of them are from parties with no MEPs at the moment, and hence no parliamentary grouping. Various things can happen:

  • Such a party could find that it and other non-iscrits now pass the two threshholds to form a grouping
  • Such a party could join an existing grouping
  • Such a party could remain as non-iscrits

Last autumn, there were reports that Marine le Pen of the French National Front and Geert Wilders of the Dutch Party for Freedom were talking of an alliance. On the above, the European Alliance for Freedom would have 29 MEPs (passing the first threshhold) from 4 countries (so failing to pass the second threshhold) - but they could form a grouping with parties like Alliance for Croatia, Germany's National Democrats, Jobbik, Golden Dawn, Slovenian National Party and Sweden Democrats (which would bring them over this threshhold and give a grouping of 41 MEPs).

If we look at the existing groupings we have (numbers in bold show the thressholds being passed):

Group MEPs Countries
EPP 217 26
PASD 208 27
ALDE 63 20
EUL/NGL 51 16
Grn/EFA 41 13
ECR 41 6
EFD 36 8

Notice which one of those numbers isn't in bold. When the Parliament assembles, the European Conservatives & Reformists will find themselves having fallen below the second threshhold, and therefore ceasing to exist as a grouping, unless they get members from another country. Mildly Eurosceptic parties like Yes 2011 and Alternative for Germany might choose to bring the ECR back over that threshhold, but don't take it for granted.

In the absence of that, the Conservatives (along with the Ulster Unionist Party) will find themselves as non-iscrits, at the back with the Democratic Unionist Party. None of the entitlements that come from being part of a grouping, just on the fringes. And that will be for 5 years, until May 2019. If David Cameron remains Prime Minister after the May 2015 general election, it would be quite interesting for him to negotiate for his referendum while his MEPs are just a small bunch of non-iscrits.

In that case, Cameron has to decide who to turn to - UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage or German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

He could ask for the Conservative MEPs to join the Europe of Freedom & Democracy, at a heavy price. Immediate referendum? Standing down in some constituencies to allow UKIP to get its first MPs?

When Cameron became leader back in December 2005, one of his aims was to pull the Conservatives out of the European People's Party/European Democrats grouping in the Parliament. To have to go to Merkel and arrange re-forming the old EPP/ED grouping would be a humiliation. He will have failed at one of his key ambitions. Imagine the response from his more Eurosceptic backbenchers.

Finishing third is not the catastrophe that faces the Conservatives. It's the 5 years that follow....

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