How Much Damage Could UKIP Cause For The Conservatives?

Opinion polls are interesting things, but the problem with the basic "x% would vote for party A" ones is that they don't tell you where the vote is coming from and where it's going.

Take for example, the change in votes between the April 1992 and May 1997 general elections (figures for Great Britain only):

Party	1992	1997	change
Conservatives	14,048,399	9,591,082	Down 4.457.317
Labour	11,560,484	13,517,911	Up 1,957,427
Liberal Democrats	5,999,384	5,243,440	Down 755,944
Others	1,220,714	2,144,674	Up 923,960
Total	32,828,981	30,497,107	Down 2,331,874

And for some voices in the Conservatives, there was a simple reasoning. Don't chase all these voters who supposedly switched to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Look at the figures - the Conservative vote fell by 4,457,317. Of that. 2,331,874 was people staying at home on election day as they were angry at the way Margaret Thatcher was forced out as Prime Minister back in November 1990 (yet failed to show their anger at the 1992 election), or were angry over the Maastricht Treaty (a 1992 manifesto commitment). You then have 923,960 switchers who voted for minor parties or independents. And 755,944 of the rise in Labour votes can simply be explained as Liberal Democrats switching.

Hence out of those who voted Conservative in 1992 and didn't in 1997, 52% were people staying at home, 21% were people switching to minor parties (predominantly the Referendum Party) or independents, and that just leaves 27% switching to Labour. Surely the route back to Conservative victory is to win back that 52% and that 21% by throwing some blue meat at the voters. More bobbies on the beat, less immigration, less Europe....

That is all very simplistic, and wrong, as there are always more complicated undercurrents. Fortunately, last week The Times had a poll of how people who voted at the May 2010 general election have switched. And there are intersting switches between the main parties and to the UK Independence Party.

The 2010 general election result was:

• Conservatives - 306 (including 1 Deputy Speaker)
• Labour - 258 (including 2 Deputy Speakers)
• Liberal Democrats - 57
• Northern Ireland parties - 18
• Scottish National Party - 6
• Plaid Cymru - 3
• Greens - 1
• The Speaker - 1

If we take the changes in vote, then we get:

• Labour gains 85 seats from the Conservatives, 24 from the Liberal Democrats and 1 from the Greens - a net gain of 110 seats
• Plaid Cymru gains 1 seat from the Liberal Democrats
• Kidderminster Hospital & Health Concern gains 1 seat from the Conservatives
• The Greens lose 1 seat to Labour
• The Conservatives gain 32 seats from the Liberal Democrats but lose 1 to Kidderminster Hospital & Health Concern and 85 to Lanour - a net loss of 54 seats
• The Liberal Democrats lose 1 seat to Plaid Cymru, 24 to Labour and 32 to the Conservatives - a net loss of 57 seats

This gives us:

• Labour - 368 (including 2 Deputy Speakers)
• Conservatives - 252 (including 1 Deputy Speaker)
• Northern Ireland parties - 18
• Scottish National Party - 6
• Plaid Cymru - 4
• Kidderminster Hospital & Health Concern - 1
• The Speaker - 1

So, a clear Labour majority of 86.

From the way some Conservatives have entered headless chicken mode, one would believe that the UK Independence Party was taking all its support from the Conservatives and if only the Conservatives found the magic policy, then the UK Independence Party voters would come home to the Conservatives, and the Conservatives would not lose any voters by adopting the UK Independence Party manifesto. We see this logic in the "look at seats where the Conservatives failed to win by a margin smaller than the UK Independence Party vote. If only we had promised...." approach.

In fact, out of those who voted at the 2010 election, 18% of Conservatives, 8% of Liberal Democrats and 4% of Labour are switching to the UK Independence Party.

I can see why Labour voters might switch. There was that opposition to the European Union and its predecessors (remember the June 1983 manifesto) and although the party moved to a more pro-EU stance late in the 1980s, there were still strands of opposition. And Labour is a labour party (the clue is in its title) - it did not chose to call itself the Socialist Party - with elements of working-class social conservatism.

As for Liberal Democrats? Well, I remember reading that there are two basic types of voters when it comes to them:

Those who vote Liberal Democrat as a protest - who will ditch that party now it is a party of Government

Those who would vote Liberal Democrat if it were a serious party of Government

So, in part there is that protest vote which has to go somewhere. But there is probably something deeper - even in the June 1999 European elections, the UK Independence Party was doing well in constituencies in the west country which had Liberal Democrat MPs. Could be more traditionalist Liberals who never felt comfortable with the merger with the Social Democrats in March 1988.

The next step for me is to take these people switching from the main parties to the UK Independence Party and keep them in the parties they are switching from. And we get something different:

• Labour gains 39 seats from the Conservatives, 23 from the Liberal Democrats and 1 from the Greens - a net gain of 63 seats
• Plaid Cymru gains 1 seat from the Liberal Democrats
• The Greens lose 1 seat to Labour
• The Conservatives gain 33 seats from the Liberal Democrats but lose 39 to Labour - a net loss of 6 seats
• The Liberal Democrats lose 1 seat to Plaid Cymru, 23 to Labour and 33 to the Conservatives - a net loss of 57 seats

This gives:

• Labour - 321 (including 2 Deputy Speakers)
• Conservatives - 300 (including 1 Deputy Speaker)
• Northern Ireland parties - 18
• Scottish National Party - 6
• Plaid Cymru - 4
• The Speaker - 1

Labour would be 5 seats short of the 324 needed for an overall majority of 2 (once we exclude the Deputy Speakers). However, Sinn Féin has 5 MPs who do not sit or vote. which means Labour would just need the support of 2 other MPs - which it could find in the Social Democratic & Labour Party and/or Plaid Cymru - to form an overall majority.

It seems that the UK Independence Party's intervention is enough to make the Conservatives lose about 50 seats - predominantly to Labour - and this makes the difference between a hung Parliament where Labour is just short of an overall majority to one where Labour has a comfortable majority.

While the UK Independence Party would not - from the poll figures - be a reason for the Conservatives not winning the next election, it would make the difference between a mild defeat and a heavy one.