Blair's Last Stand

So, Tony Blair has made his final speech to the Labour conference as leader, and starts on his way out of office.

He stated:

In 1994 I stood before you for the first time and shared the country's anger at crumbling school buildings, patients languishing, sometimes dying in pain, waiting for operations, ot crime doubled, of homes repossessed, of pensioners living in poverty...

Fascinating. I wonder whether he shares our anger that things haven't changed? Except for the worst.

We have black ministers and the first woman, and then the first black woman, Leader of the Lords.

Margaret Jay, Labour politician, who was Leader of the House of Lords from July 1998 to June 2001, was fond of saying that she was the first woman ever to be Leader of the Lords.

Janet Young, Conservative politician, was Leader of the House of Lords from September 1981 to June 1983.

I wonder what would happen if Labour chose a woman as leader. Would she stand before the 2007 conference and proudly declare that she is Britain's first woman Prime Minister?

Banning things that should never have been allowed: handguns...

One of the sad things about the dying days of the last Conservative government was the occasional bout of nanny and her jerking knee. Knee-jerking legislation introduced the the Conservatives included the Firearms (Amendment) Act 1997, banning many types of guns. A piece of legislation introduced by the last Conservative government is now claimed by Labour as one of their achievements.

Two thirds of the country has access to the Internet.

And? So? The internet has grown through technological advances, often privately-funded, and often done overseas. We are lucky to have cheap access to the internet, which would have been difficult unless the Conservatives had liberalised and deregulated the telecommunications market (which Labour fought tooth and nail). Remember when if you had a phone, the provider had to be BT? If that had still been the case, how many people would have had access to the Internet if the sole provider were a creaking, badly-run, nationalised company?

From now until I leave office I will dedicate myself, with the same commitment I have given in Northern Ireland, to advancing peace between Israel and Palestine.

Ah, he must mean giving concession after concession to terrorists.

And the truth is that nothing we strive for, from the world trade talks to global warming, to terrorism and Palestine cannot be solved without America or without Europe.

At the moment I know people only see the price of these alliances.

Now, for once, Blair says something that is correct. But, it would be useful if he outlined practical ways to do this.

Methodism At 200

Yesterday evening, we had a talk by our Circuit Archivist about 200 years of Methodism in Bitterne.

John Wesley visited Southampton briefly in 1767, and did another visit- which lasted longer than he planned- in 1787. Wesley, and a colleague, John Bradford, had been visiting Salisbury and had then gone to Romsey, and then planned to go to the Isle of Wight. In those days one couldn't just hop on a ferry in Southampton and arrive in Cowes half an hour later- boats to the Isle of Wight were very irregular, depending upon the tides and the weather. Although Wesley encouraged Methodists to remain attending the Church of England, many of the Southampton Methodists worshipped at Above Bar Chapel- an independent evangelical church will still exists- and Wesley stayed at the home of one of Above Bar's elders (whose wife was a Methodist), and over the course of several days took the opportunity to preach the Gospel out and about in Southampton, before he could sail to the Isle of Wight.

In 1806 the Methodists in Bitterne started meeting as a group at the home of a John Sinnatt. To do this, they had to get permission from the Bishop of Winchester (although Protestants outside the Church of England could meet for worship, they were breaking the law if they didn't have the local Church of England bishop's permission, and were forbidden to do baptisms, weddings or funerals, which all had to be done in the Church of England).

At the time, we were in the Salisbury circuit- a massive circuit covering the Isle of Wight, most of Wiltshire, most of Dorset, the southern part of Hampshire and some of the western parts of Sussex!

In 1823, the Methodists stopped meeting at Sinnatt's home, as they had managed to have a Chapel built. Although Ordnance Survey maps insisted on calling it a Baptist Chapel! This was the first building built for Christian worship in Bitterne. Anglicans had to go up to South Stoneham. (I did wonder why that rang a bell, and went through old family certificates. My great-grandparents lived in Bitterne and got married in South Stoneham Parish church in 1904. And my great-grandfather's funeral was held there just 3 years later).

The early 19th century was a time for division in the Methodist church. In Bitterne we were Wesleyan Methodists. The Bible Christians were an offshoot of Methodism, starting in Devon and Cornwall, and tended to be confused with the Plymouth Brethren. There was a small community of them in Southampton. The Primitive Methodists came from the North of England, and wanted to go back to basics, with Wesley-style field preaching. They used to preach on Southampton Common, and indeed, some older Methodists will remember preaching there in the open air.

By the late 19th century, the rules on weddings had been relaxed, and some Protestant churches outside the Church of England were licenced to hold wedding, which up till then were only valid if done within a Church of England building. We were one of the few churches allowed to do weddings.

The talk took us up to 1933 with the reunification of Methodism.

A very interesting talk by a speaker who can hold us spellbound for 2 hours.

And then we saw the bust of Wesley that we have had installed.

A chance to look back and remember God's faithfullness to us over 200 years, and to remember that the God we worship and serve here and now is the same one who called Wesley to visit in 1787, and who guided Sinnatt to open his home for meetings, and who has been with Methodists in Bitterne for two centuries.

2007? 2009? 2010?

Today the Labour party conference starts- Tony Blair's last one as Labour leader and Prime Minister, and so thoughts turn to the future. At some point soon, Labour will choose its new leader, whom the Queen will then invite to be Prime Minister.

One argument advanced by papers such as Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph is that it it somehow "unconstitutional" for there to be a change of Prime Minister without a general election. This relies on the false premise that we somehow elect a Prime Minister.

Casting my mind back to 5 May 2005 I don't recall being given a ballot paper asking me to choose a Prime Minister. I was given a ballot paper asking me to choose who should represent the people of Southampton Itchen. The only vote I cast that day was for Felicity Drummond, the unsuccessful Conservative candidate. The only people given a ballot paper with Blair on were the good people of Sedgefield, who were asked who they wanted to represent them. And, as in 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997 and 2001, they chose Blair.

Labour have a majority of seats in the House of Commons. And- unless there are mass defections from Labour or a load of byelections- once they choose a new leader, Labour will still have a majority, and be able to continue governing. The new Labour leader will be able to start as Prime Minister with a working majority, and that is all that matters.

The argument that there has to be a General Election when the Prime Minister changes is disproved by history. Since the end of the Second World War, 6 changes of Prime Minister have been in the aftermath of a General Election:

1951 Clement Attlee to Winston Churchill
1964 Alec Douglas-Home to Harold Wilson
1970 Harold Wilson to Edward Heath
1974 Edward Heath to Harold Wilson
1979 James Callaghan to Margaret Thatcher
1997 John Major to Tony Blair

and 5 changes have been a party simply changing its leader:

1955 Winston Churchill to Anthony Eden
1957 Anthony Eden to Harold Macmillan
1963 Harold Macmillan to Alec Douglas-Home
1976 Harold Wilson to James Callaghan
1990 Margaret Thatcher to John Major

One opinion poll today suggests that 55% of the population believe that if Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, is elected by Labour as its leader, then one his early acts as Prime Minister should be to ask the Queen to dissolve Parliament and call an early General Election. The most likely date for this would be 3 May 2007- the same date as many local councils as well as the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly elections. The benefits for the new Prime Minister is that he (or she) would still be in the honeymoon period that new Prime Ministers enjoy and an election then would be on the current boundaries, which are more favourable to Labour than the new ones.

I have tended to say 2009 for the next election. There tends to be 4 years between elections. There are many local council elections on 7 May 2009, and the European Parliament elections are between 11 and 14 June 2009 (but in Britain you will only be able to vote on 11 June).

The incoming Prime Minister could try to hang on for as long as possible. The Parliament elected in 2005 first met on 11 May. Unless it is dissolved beforehand, it loses its power to pass legislation on 10 May 2010 and will have to be dissolved that day. This is Day 0, and the election has to be held on Day 17 (Saturdays, Sundays and Bank Holidays don't count). Day 17 is 3 June 2010- the latest possible day for the next election.

That Friday Feeling...

..for me was one of oversleeping (I didn't wake up till 10 to 6- a serious lie-in for me) aching all over and after breakfast having to hurry for the train.

The reason for this is that a colleague at work and I have started going to the gym together on Mondays and Thursdays. I had done some weight-training in the past, but never been totally sure what I was doing. Many inductions seem to be of the vague "you get on the bike and cycle, you get on the rowing machine and row, and don't forget to stretch" type. At our gym it was more detailed.

The good thing about working out with someone more experienced is that you learn. Stretching was something I knew very little about, but I have already picked up quite a few and realise how important they are. In each session, the plan is that I'll learn something new and spend more time doing what I have already learned.

Can Ming The Merciless And Flash Gordon Team Up?

Might be the question on everyone's lips come 2009.

OK, might be the question on every political anorak's lips come 2009.

Assuming of course that the Liberal Democrats don't oust their leader, Ming Campbell, by then.

And assuming of course that Labour choose the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, as their leader.

This has been the week for an annual seaside comedy show called the "Liberal Democrat party conference".

However, Ming the Merciless is trying hard to make the Lib Dems appear a serious, credible party. I am not sure what to make of his success over taxation. The Lib Dems had over time drifted to the left of Labour over taxation, and have finally dropped their proposed 50% tax rate for high-earners, despite the usual retro-Marxist people who argue that the better-off won't miss all the extra tax they would pay. And there is a certain logic in green taxes.

I think part of Ming's problem is the party he leads. Although there are sensible, credible politicians like Ming himself, his deputy leader Vince Cable, home affairs spokesman Nick Clegg, trade & industry spokesman Ed Davey and international development spokeswoman Susan Kramer, may Lib Dems are still stuck in the comfort of opposition- it is easy to call out simple one-line solutions when you don't have the hope of power.

How close are they to power? Have a look at the notional results for the last election (these are the results of the 2005 election projected onto the new constituencies that will be used at the next election):

Labour- 345
Conservative- 212
Lib Dem- 63
DUP- 10
SNP- 6
Sinn Fein- 5
SDLP- 3
Plaid Cymru- 2
Independent- 1
Respect- 1
KHHC- 1
The Speaker- 1

I would expect 2 seats to naturally fall to Labour- by 2009, Michael Martin (Speaker, Glasgow North East) would have served as Speaker for 9 years, which is about the normal length of service; and George Galloway (Respect, Bethnal Green & Bow) was only planning on serving one term anyway. On the other side, by 2009, Richard Taylor (KHHC, Wyre Forest) will be in his seventies, and this is a seat which the Conservatives came close to victory in 2005 and I would be surprised if KHHC did run a candidate next time.

2005 saw the Lib Dems make great strides in gaining urban seats from Labour, and they are now close to capturing Aberdeen South, Edinburgh South, Hampstead & Kilburn, Islington South & Finsbury, Oldham East & Saddleworth, Oxford East, and Watford.

A slight advance by the Conservatives coupled with the Lib Dems grabbing a few urban Labour seats should be enough to produce the Lib Dem goal of a hung parliament.

What happens then?

Possibility 1- Labour forms a minority government. Legally, the Prime Minister before the election would still be Prime Minister, and would remain so until either resigning or losing a confidence motion in Parliament. However, it might seem unpalabtable for a defeated government to remain in office. The Queen would also be in a tricky position if, after a few months, the Prime Minister came to her and asked for a new election.

Possibility 2- Labour and the Lib Dems form a coalition. Again, a defeated government would remain in office and with Campbell and Brown both representing Fife constituencies, the West Lothian Question would rear its ugly head.

Possibility 3- the Conservatives and Lib Dems form a coalition. Enough common ground. But Lib Dems who look at their history know that they split in two when entering coalitions with the Conservatives (1885, 1916 and 1931).

Possibility 4- the Conservatives form a minority government. After a few months, David Cameron asks the Queen for fresh elections.